Monday, July 25, 2016

Major Article By Governor Palin;"We Need To Be Better, Not Bitter"

Via Independent Journal
Getty - Aaron P. Bernstein
Independent Journal Opinion is an opinion platform and any opinions or information put forth by contributors are exclusive to them and do not represent Independent Journal.
With Donald Trump securing the presidential nomination, the political narrative is shifting rapidly and revealingly. As you watch former haters hop aboard the Trump Train, it’s important to connect dots and understand my concern about a bunch of belated mea culpas with which we’ll now be inundated.
It’s important because time is short and lessons must be learned to avoid future catastrophic capture by status quo politicos.
Friends, my concern here is all about the attempted destruction of Trump SUPPORTERS over all these months. I’ve zipped my lips long enough; it’s time to call out those who’ve tried to destroy you.
Personally, since endorsing Trump, my family and I haven’t seen the level of hate and vitriol spewed our way since the 2008 McCain/Palin campaign. It’s been hellish. (Forgive my preaching to the choir though, as so many Trump supporters – and of course Trump himself – have been put through hell as well. And he ain’t seen ‘nuthin yet.)
From fair-weather friends and “supporters” turning decisively away in the meanest of ways, to me losing jobs – literally – the moment my support for Trump was made public, we sucked it up and hung on to hope that vindication was around the corner. I was told – for the umpteenth time – my career was over for “going rogue” this election cycle.
But the more people realize dirtiness on both sides of the aisle won’t be sanitized by today’s typical politicians, and the clearer voters see the ONLY candidate necessarily enlarging the tent with previously ignored patriots, and the smarter everyone gets about how to restore American exceptionalism, well…the more obvious the reason for sticking the ol’ neck out again early on.
Exposing political games and connections that hurt the innocent was the early battle. Now we move down the battlefield to hold culprits accountable so they won’t be rewarded with opportunity to keep screwing you, America. It’s how we win the war for our nation’s solvency, sovereignty and security.
I’ve said for years that nefarious politicos and their media lapdogs don’t really care which party wins elections – to them this is all just a money-making scheme. Politics are just business. As long as they get to keep their titles, ratings, power, and purses full, they ignore the will of the people by unemploying commonsense solutions to America’s challenges. I thank God enough primary election voters screamed, “Enough! The status quo has got to go!” and took up proverbial arms to throw the bums out. And the revolution has just begun.
Conveniently, oppressors of this nationalist revolution found a way to save face. The obvious wall-writing told them they’d lose money and influence if they continued fighting AGAINST the majority, so the donor classscattered from their polarizing candidate when Ted Cruz’s suicide vest detonated at the GOP convention.
The collateral damage is too much for them to survive; it’s shaking hell right out of their piggy banks. It wasn’t cool then to wage war against the permanent political class that’s essentially throwing in for Hillary Clinton, but after the Cruz implosion they have an excuse to come around.
They’ll never give you credit for being right, Trump Train engineers, because we’re still just peon passengers to them, but they’d like to join you now at the cool kids table. Just remember it’s YOUR table, patriots. YOU set it. They’d better behave as your guests.
I’ve been asked all year questions like why it seems I’m “relegated” to outsider status of current political machines; why there’s no longer a seat at the talking heads TV table; why’d previous “friends” commence public condemnation of me despite me never changing my values, priorities or loyalties to the right causes. The question is suggested, “Don’t you know if you just go along to get along you’d be in the big shots’ good graces?”
The answer is obvious as more dots get connected during this election season’s fall out.
The shifting and sifting you’ll see explains what goes on inside their grimy games. What’s left intact are lessons in how to survive, not how to make friends. For me, it’s all continued confirmation to never put my hope and faith in the political arena; instead I’ll be productive by choosing God and family to give me validation, definition and joy.
A significant exposition is the billionaire Mercer family’s financial ties to Cruz, his SuperPACs, think tanks, media outlets, and donor class hanger-oners like Glenn Beck, which will explain why guys (like Mercer-affiliated Beck) did a 180 on me – and you – with inexplicable personal attacks to invalidate us. The inconsistencies and random attacks they engaged in have been so, well, RANDOM that was hard not to giggle publicly at their bizarreness.
Beck and his ilk showed they don’t oppose politics of personal destruction they used to rail against with lip service. They actually participate in Alinsky-like tactics that make the rest of us gag at typical political shenanigans.
So now we must rise to the challenge of becoming better, not bitter, in the midst of what the obstructionists tried to do. You who knew we needed a revolution ignored the haters to find a revolutionary, and we nominated him to help make America great again. Now, validated, productive, joyful people will get our messenger over the finish line so we can begin the fight to restore America.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

Trump Convention "Bounce" Continues +4.1 USC/LATimes Poll Trump 45.4% Clinton 41.3%; Gravis Trump 51% Hillary 49%

Three out of four ain't bad especially if the 4th is Reuters.




USC/LATIMES  < link

Trump 45.4 Hillary 41.3 Trump +4.1 Points





New Gravis poll taken July 21/22 which would not reflect the end of convention Trump speech fully
Trump 51% Clinton 49%



AND PREVIOUSLY;

New Poll;Hillary 35.7% Trump 34.9% Trump 12% Black Support
Spoiler alert it's Reuters. They rejigged their voter screen which was +10 Dem so for the first time this year they are coming into balance with most other polls and mirror Trump's rise in the LATimes poll 

This poll concluded on the 21st while the RNC convention was still on and does not take full allowance for Trump's closing address so a Trump lead might be expected from their next poll.

As always, a single poll means little and the aggregate is what counts but once in a while it is OK to have fun especially when a poll gives ones side the advantage.

The trend is, after allowing for the polling adjustment, probably correct. 

How the Dem's convention goes will determine Clinton's "bounce" and after a further two weeks a clearer picture will emerge.

NB;The Reuters "likely voters" result, which polling is considered 'most accurate" has Hillary 40.8% and Trump 37.8% with a similar ascending trendline for Trump as the 'all voters" graph below.

The only other likely voters polls at RCP have Trump in the lead  and those are before the end of the RNC convention.


12% Support from Black voters in this poll-double that received by Romney in 2012 

Friday, July 22, 2016

Unmissable New Book "Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race"

Don Surber advised me that this book was coming and I have been checking Amazon with hope that the day would be "Der Tag"
and now it is here. For all who suffered the insufferable like Nate Silver, Harry "forecaster" Enten at Fivethirtyeight, Philip Bump,Chris Cillizza,Dana "I'll eat my column if Trump is the nominee" Milbank, in fact the entire Washington Post "press" and all the egg on their faces MSM who got Trump 100% wrong may they enjoy their permanence in history with such as "Dewey Defeats Truman". This is a delight to savor




Comments from LINK  (buy the book)

Top Customer Reviews

Format: Paperback
I do not believe any book like this has ever existed in the literature of politics or its history, certainly not of the press per se. It is written with an easy style, deceptive in its seeming simplicity and innocent humor, devoid as it is of the sneering hostility common to its protagonists, the pundit press, that renders it hard to put down as a book, all the more admirable in its message that truth is more than a match for the arrogance of the false prophet unfairly ordained. Surber has mined and quoted, without truncating in the least, the extensive column footage of political "experts" predicting the fall and humiliation of Donald Trump, often for years prior to his nomination bid. Whether you love, fear, or hate Trump, there is much to learn and even enjoy for all sides in this smoothly written and often delightful little book. The Chapter "Peak Trump" is worth the price of the book by itself and someday it will be considered a required classic for the educated journalist or connoisseur of political satire. The press itself and its monolithic motivation to rule popular opinion is examined in some detail, not in a polemic by the author, but by the press itself in its own indelible words.
Surber is a blogger now but was the political analyst of a small town newspaper for decades. He correctly called several National elections, missed others. He has the humility that gives power to his views, never blatant, always informative, always surprising. This book is a masterpiece.
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Dense.

Interesting word.

On the one hand it describes well the targets here, the "press". So dense that no amount of "obvious" can penetrate.

On the other hand, it describes the book itself, where every word on every page conveys the story to the reader.

Another reviewer describes it as "a new political classic" -- I think it may be a new genre -- one that not only explains what happened, but also provides the whole back drop so the reader can see WHY it happened.

The whole book is important and should be read in-sequence, but be prepared for some chapters to hit harder than others, I think there were a half dozen like that--particularly 34, 41 and 44.

These special chapters triggered Aha! moments for me, where with great clarity I saw for the first time things I should have seen before.
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A new political classic!

This delightful book contains hundreds of quotes from the pundits, opinion 'leaders' and political 'experts' who all failed to comprehend the rise of Trump. "What fools these mortals be" was the Bard's line, but it also applies here.

But it's not just quotes; Surber's acerbic wit and analysis are also present, as in this passage:

"Only someone as entrenched in the federal government (as Witcover became after decades of covering Washington) would dismiss Trump's forty years as a chief executive officer as making him "conspicuously unqualified" to be president, especially while a community organizer with less than a term in the Senate sat at the Resolute desk in the Oval Office."

This volume should be required reading for all those studying political 'science' or journalism. Great fun!
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I haven't enjoyed a book quite like this one EVER. In punchy, tightly written chapters, Don Surber reviews the GOP primary process, from announcements, to primaries, to majority delegate position for Donald Trump, and has a blast with the conventional wisdom of the press and the pundits (who in general performed abysmally) who got to see their predictions fail in a short time, again and again. For those of us whose humor revolves around a line that gets more meaningful over time (think of Marc Anthony's "honorable men"), this is a collection of essays and chapters not to be missed.

You want it. This is worth buying.
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This is first rate writing. I consider Don a friend (and fellow Mountaineer!) but even if he wasn't, there is no doubt about his literary skills. The man knows how to make a case for his beliefs without being preachy or overbearing. WHEN - not if - Trump wins, this book will be looked at as one of the most sagely and prescient books in modern presidential political history.

Re; My Decision To Quit Twitter; Ace's Post Gives Reinforcement

I feel so much cleaner and better-should have done it a long time ago.
NB;When it comes to Trump's first post convention poll bounce & Don Surber's book on the MSM "pundit"fail I'll pass on the good news-but no interacting with haters.

*****************************************


From Ace of Spades HQ;


"Twitter's Stock Downgraded from "Hold" to "Sell"

—Ace

That's because it's essentially a petri dish for stupidity, cowardice, cruelty, andimpotent hatred, and we already have plenty of that without it.
Posted by Ace at 12:28 PM Comments

New Poll;Hillary 35.7% Trump 34.9% Trump 12% Black Support

Spoiler alert it's Reuters. They rejigged their voter screen which was +10 Dem so for the first time this year they are coming into balance with most other polls. 

But they still have distortions as they show Hillary  winning white males which is just silly (as is Trump with their 12% Black support)

This poll concluded on the 21st while the RNC convention was still on and does not take full allowance for Trump's closing address so a Trump lead might be expected from their next poll.

As always, a single poll means little and the aggregate is what counts but once in a while it is OK to have fun especially when a poll gives ones side the advantage.

The trend is, after allowing for the polling adjustment, probably correct. 

How the Dem's convention goes will determine Clinton's "bounce" and after a further two weeks a clearer picture will emerge.

NB;The Reuters "likely voters" result, which polling is considered 'most accurate" has Hillary 40.8% and Trump 37.8% with a similar ascending trendline for Trump as the 'all voters" graph below.

The only other likely voters polls at RCP have Trump in the lead (slightly in the USC poll) and those are before the end of the RNC convention.






2016 Election Looks Like A Combo Of The 2000 & 2004 Elections

I wrote previously that the 2016 election is shaping up to be a rerun of the 2004 "national security" election;

"The 2004 Bush versus Kerry  election (the latter is still a major player in some way in the 2016 scenario, even as a ghostly echo) turned on national security. 
That Bush was competitive after the "stolen" election of 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote handily was enabled by the aftermath of 9/11. Bush's handling of that (pre-the Iraq invasion) and the Homeland Security success kept him competitive.
It can be fairly said that Bin laden's intervention in the campaign with his video threats ensured that, in the final analysis, national security was the paramount issue that gave Bush the narrowest of wins percentage wise of any re-elected president.

"Kerry blames defeat on Bin Laden"
Although Bush won the popular vote handily he won Ohio,and the electoral college majority by a football stadium crowd size majority and won Iowa/Colorado/New Mexico, all states that went subsequently for Obama, by wide margins.
I have little doubt that in the end the 2016 election will also like 2004,no matter the twists and turns between now and November, also come down to "who is best to answer the 3 a.m. call."  
Trump's likeabilty, which will improve over time, is not the deciding factor although his honesty, which polls shows is rated higher than Hillary's may have some input, but rather "who has the strength to keep my family safe in this dangerous world."
President Obama and Former Secretary Clinton have tried and failed. Nice, and the previous international terror examples, plus Ft.Hood, Boston, San Bernardino and Orlando stand as proof."

Subsequent polling has shown that both Trump and Clinton are the most unpopular candidates ever known.
The RCP aggregate polling has Hillary at 40.9% and Trump at 37.3% That's only just over 78% combined.

Libertarian Johnson 8.3% and Greens Stein 4% with 10% so unhappy with the four choices they can't make up their minds.

History shows that third, and especially fourth candidates, always decline on election day and it would be most surprising if Johnson got 8%. Green might pick up some dissatisfied Sanders voters, if they turn out which is always a problem with young voters.

The key facts are that it doesn't matter what the Johnson/Green vote is nationwide it does matter a lot what it is like in the key states. Ralph Nader took just enough votes from Al Gore in New Hampshire (3.60%) and Florida (1.93%) to ensure the eventual election of G.W. Bush who won Florida by 0.00187799158% despite getting only 2.74% nationwide.

As of today Clinton has a tiny lead in the Florida aggregate polling of 0.6 points But with Johnson and Green in the mix Trump leads by 0.2 points in this crucial state. In Ohio Clinton's 1.5 point  H2H lead becomes 2.5 with the four candidates.

New Hampshire sees Hillary's 2.6 point H2H lead become a 4 way tie. Her 3.2 point Pennsylvania lead drops to only 1 point.

If Trump wins the "Romney states"  and Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvia (or Florida/Virginia/Ohio/New Hampshire or Iowa) he will win in the electoral college. Those states are the ones currently most effecting the Trump/Clinton race to the required 270 (actually 269 in Trump's case) electoral college votes.

2016 is shaping up to be a combination of the 2004 national security election and the 2000 election where the winner has less popular votes but won in the electoral college with the help of minor parties. Let's hope it doesn't take a 4/4 divided Supreme Court to have to decide who the winner is.


No Country For Old ,Young, Middle Aged Men And Women

Cormac McCarthy "No Country For Old Men"


Exactly so.

America's "Golden Age" commenced in January 1953 with the inauguration of President Eisenhower. This brought eight years of growth, prosperity, domestic balance and the defense of those values against communism at home and abroad.

The golden age ended in November 1963 with the assassination of president Kennedy.

The two men, Eisenhower elderly and avuncular, Kennedy youthful, vigorous and with a beautiful wife were perfectly cast for their times and reflected the spectrum of the American Age.

Of course things were not perfect but the stirrings of the civil rights movement were supported by both presidents, were addressed positively by both men within the ethos of the times, but courageously and directly. Women were disadvantaged certainly but the feminist movement was commencing with reasoned argument.

On the other hand the perceived values of women as homemaker, mother and support for the single income earner was hugely valued, and in itself represented a major part of the balance and security of mainstream America.

The descent of America to where it is today, with race relations in a terrible place, with cities in disrepair, with an economy stuck in slow growth combined with trillions in the public debt began after Lyndon Johnson's landslide election in 1964. Nixon and Watergate brought the shame of a president and vice-president's resignations and further debunking of authority.

The immoral Vietnam war unleashed a torrent of violence,the repudiation of classic values of civility and disdain for authority. The deficit spending to finance the war unbalanced the economy, drug "culture" commenced as a norm and Hollywood was empowered to glorify every perversion of normal sexuality as the proper end for liberal society.

Certainly the first term of Ronald Reagan restored a degree of a return to stability but the Iran Contra affair stained his legacy and President Clinton debauchery brought the presidency to a low deemed impossible in previous generations.

Donald Trump because of the fact he is not beholden to any group or faction, offers the chance for a return not only to prosperity, and of course jobs are the best solution to crime and displacement caused by unemployment, but to a society where authority, and especially the police and armed forces personnel are valued, respected, an honored.

To expect such an outcome from Bill Clinton's wife, whose "values" and honesty are debatable to say the least is foolish. 

America is at a crossroads, perhaps the last one, and if the wrong turning is taken the future of the country as a cohesive, peaceful society is dubious.