Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Under The Radar A Disastrous Poll for Dem's (A Wave Is Not a'Comin')


The Cook Report's Amy Walter produced a breathless article "A Wave Is a Comin' setting out how current polling shows the strong possibility of the Dem's retaking the House in the 2018 mid-terms

"This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15 is that kind of margin even big enough to net 24 seats to surf into the majority? The short answer: they need to see a generic ballot advantage of +8 or more, which roughly translates to getting at least 54 percent or more of the national House vote in 2018."
 
Walters then advises that on top of the Dem's polling advantage;

 "Getting a tax bill across the finish line isn’t going to be enough to change the mood of the country. A good economy is helpful to the GOP as it can cut down on some of the headwinds coming at them right now. But, it’s not clear to me that it’s enough to fundamentally alter the way voters see Congress, the GOP and the President.  But, there is precedent for Democrats winning the House vote by double digits in mid-term years."
 
The precedent is of course the fact that in the absolute majority of cases the mid-terms go against the party that has won the presidency prior to the mid-terms.

"Opposition parties, by contrast, find the odds forever in their favor. In the last 20 midterm elections, the president’s party has picked up seats only twice: in 2002, when Republicans gained eight right after 9/11, and in 1998, when Democrats gained five thanks to House Republicans’ obsession with impeachment."
 
All that being said however gaining seats and winning a majority are two different things altogether;

"In the last 60 years, control of the U.S. House of Representatives has changed hands just three times, always in midterm elections"
 
Another rule of punditry, perhaps one of the few to survive the disastrous prediction of 2015/6 is "a week in politics is a long time." 
 
Walters herself was not immune to this history of punditry failure by her own admission that she got the 2006 mid-terms and Trump wrong (she was not alone, her boss Charlie Cook consistently underestimated Trump "his ceiling is 19%)
Just after her Cook Report analysis this poll (page 8) appeared

2018 Generic Congressional Vote   NPR/PBS/Marist     Democrats 43, Republicans 40     Democrats +3

How does that relate to the possibility of Nancy Pelosi receiving the Speakers gavel from Paul Ryan? Not very well according to Nate Silver's view, written when the Democrat's had a 7 point Congressional vote lead  in June, of what is required for the handover.

"
The true margin of error for generic ballot polls is about +/- 5 percentage points, even for those done at the end of the campaign. So that 7-point advantage we see for the Democrats could indicate a national House win of only 2 points, which would fall far short of what the Democrats need to regain control of the chamber. (Or Democrats could win by as many as 12 points.)
 
 In the end, a final generic-ballot average showing the Democrats up 7 points would suggest that they’d be about a 50-50 proposition to take back the House."
 
Both Walter and Silver equivocate, as would be expected after the disastrous punditry before Trump's election, advising, rightly, that events can markedly change the picture as we get closer to the elections.

However, taking Silver's advice of a +/- 5 percentage point margin of error, the NPR/PBSMarist poll shows the GOP could actually increase their control of the House. 
 
But the historical reality leans to a swing against the Republicans. Even so it would have to be at the absolute top of the polls margin in favor of the Dem's  (+8) and even then the chances of a turnover are 50/50.
Walters concluded; "But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building."

Perhaps so, but the wave may be in the opposite direction to what Walters/Cook perceive. So many have made the mistake of underestimating Trump and the tsunami of 2016 may yet have some further surge power.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Hillary; The Sorrow And The Pity; "Depart In The Name of God Go"


It's like watching the end career Whitney Houston stumbling through 'I will always love you' or tragic Muhammad Ali in the early stages of Parkinson's versus Larry Holmes when Larry backed off in pity and Ali sat, head bowed, on his stool unable to continue.

It's sad to watch the descent of a fellow human being no matter how hideous they were in their prime. But now it's time to turn eyes away. I've reached a point where anger has now turned to a genuine sadness for, yes I'll say, it Hillary Clinton (and similarly the tragic stick figure of Kathy Griffin).
 
Watching Hillary hobble in a moon boot, flogging books in Walmart, railing endlessly about a stolen election "a dictatorship" if there is a hint of legal action against her, while her erstwhile defenders in the liberal media turn on her and Bill, would have previously brought emotions of glee, exhilaration and notions of "karma" but, frankly, all that arises are feelings of not caring at all.
 
Colleagues round on me with exhortations about her long career of various degrees of purported malfeasance, lying, enabling, rages, money grubbing and worse in fact the endless gamut of charges conservatives have railed about  for decades and of course they have a point. It is perfectly natural to seek political revenge against a hated figure who has stood in the way of ones partisan beliefs and electoral wins but I just don't have it in me anymore.
 
It may eventuate that Hillary has just commenced her decline and if what is being described as "The crime of the century" the uranium to Russia scandal with its purported pay to play Clinton involvement, actually entails malfeasance then even the most revengeful will at some point remove themselves from the ensuing denouement.
 
American political history has shown that the voters nearly always make the right presidential choice no matter how puzzling such choices are to the pundit class.

 
As each month passes from President Trump's election and unemployment reaches lows never seen in state after state, consumer confidence rebounds, blue collar wages show a sharp increase and the share market booms.
 
 
Hillary thus becomes more and more an afterthought as Trump voters are justified in their choice-most especially in the "rust belt' states where Trump overcame massive Democratic majorities and whose voters are being repaid for their faith in his MAGA promises.


Hillary's seeming pathetic end game role is to be thrown under the bus by erstwhile colleagues Like Donna Brazile, the 'Morning Joe team who, after decades now have seen the light that Bill (and by implication Hillary) where not the shining lights the left held them up to be and a whipping girl for radical feminist frustration;
 

"Hollywood celebrities, liberal journalists and Democrat politicians are being destroyed by this feminist war of vengeance, and why? Because Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, that’s why." 
   
Oliver Cromwell's exhortation to the similarly sad, well past its use by date and functionless Rump Parliament
"
You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"
 

Might, with unexpected but needed introspection (and perhaps intervention by well meaning friends) commend itself to Hillary, in the end if not for her possibly incorrigible sake, then for ours.

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Redux; "The Kids Are Not Alright"

From 2013. the more things change the more they stay the same (or get worse)
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Once again the denizens of Hollywood are using their unique propaganda tool, the Academy Awards, in the aid of their warped social philosophy.

It is a fair assumption, one only has to peruse the cover of  a gossip magazine,that a higher proportion of neurotics, drug users, out and out societal misfits, and the just plain mad who compose a proportion of the entertainment industry in numbers well  above the national average will be gathered together on awards night.

On top of their collective neuroses, and surely actors by their very profession are subject to various manifestations of eccentricity, they have, through the massive reach of their medium, enormous power, wealth and great influence on the average person.

Thus what just a few years ago would have been considered a gross perversion, if not illegal and generally not even possible, same sex couples adopting, or creating via the loving mechanics of a turkey baster, babies.

High profile entertainment industry types, can, through their wealth and media power, undertake actions which if a normal person attempted it they would be castigated or even arrested for breaking societies taboos. Over the years we have seen these structures of society attacked and then broken and then made commonplace by actors.

"Shock horror" newspaper headlines follow, then the glossies started to make it "interesting' and shortly after it became "normal" irrespective of what example it set for society and the effect it would have on children of such relationships. Of course such unstable relationships composed of unstable people break up one after another with untold harm on the innocents who are caught up in such horrors.

That aspect of normal society undermined, the next attack, Gay and lesbian same sex relationships adopting children hove into view. Again, the unthinkable becomes, via the wealth,"prestige", and power of entertainment types, perfectly acceptable to society. Elton John and partner adopts, how is it possible for men of their age in the first place to adopt an infant? Cynthia Nixon's "fiancee' gives birth amongst recent examples.

There are no long term studies on how children who grow up in these unnatural parenting relationships adjust in society.What sort of difficulties to they encounter at school amongst their peers? Do the have trouble establishing an heterosexual relationship? 

What effect will this have on population trends amongst Western nations and if they decline what will be the economic effects and the social effects as more third world labor is needed to take up the slack?

Hollywood doesn't care-all the denizens care about is satisfying their ego's, carnal nature and their hedonism "Cocaine is God's way of telling you you have too much money" Robin Williams is quoted as saying, Lohan, Sheen-well the list of examples is endless. Now having children has become their latest status symbol. It started with the adopting out of Africa craze and now has spread to same sex couples.

There are no barriers to satisfying their needs for those in the entertainment industry. Same sex parenting a no no? The propaganda machine starts. The first foray was The Birdcage with lovable characters, then "The kids are all right" whose premise is " look we lesbian parent couples are not weird, we have all the "normal" family problems and squabbles just like everyone else so our parenting is "normal"-just like everyone else

PC History Revision; Not 45 Presidents But 25 (Perhaps Only 1)



It was of course inevitable that the progression would go from removing Confederate statues to red painting or torching Christopher Columbus, Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln's ! Thus nothing was more certain, given this sometimes odd trajectory, that the "Father of The Nation" George Washington would be sent to the outer darkness.

That our first president has had his memorial plaque removed (as was Robert E.Lee's) from the church he bought pew number 5 in and attended for over twenty  years "because some people are offended" is hardly to be wondered at, but viewed with a terrible sadness as something inevitable but tragic.

"While acknowledging “friction” over the decision, the church’s leadership said the twin memorials, which are attached to the wall on either side of the altar, are relics of another era and have no business in a church that proclaims its motto as “All are welcome — no exceptions.”

“The plaques in our sanctuary make some in our presence feel unsafe or unwelcome. Some visitors and guests who worship with us choose not to return because they receive an unintended message from the prominent presence of the plaques,” the church leaders said."

 This is of course the worst of sophistry, a whitewashed wall of political correctness and 'white guilt" gone mad.

However we must bow to the inevitable, in at least the East and West Coast liberal redoubts diktats and take the next step and renumber the list of American presidents to reflect the new values and history.

There are, or rather were 45 presidents of the United States, but to prevent further white guilt, citizens being so offended that they leave the country and civil dislocation, this list must  and should be purged forthwith along these lines.

Firstly and obviously the 12 presidents who were slaveholders have to be removed from the lists and all statues, postage stamps, school/bridges named after or picturing them have to be similarly expunged.

Farewell to Washington/Jefferson/Madison/Monroe/Jackson/Van Buren/W.H. Harrison/Tyler/Taylor/A. Johnson/Grant. This takes us to 33. But we are hardly done yet as there are many more persons who will be offended by the majority of the remaining so on we push.

James Buchanan "a reluctant slaveholder" might be given a pass but his  "if you emancipate your slaves, they will become masters "Is there any man in this Union who could, for a  moment, indulge in the horrible idea of abolishing slavery by the massacre of the high-minded, and the chivalrous race  of men in the South?" puts him well beyond the pale
Down to 32 with work to do still.

Rutherford B. Hayes was elected via the 'stolen election' on the promise of removing federal troops from the former Confederate states which made for the introduction of segregation and Black voter suppression. 31

Democrat Grover Cleveland was twice elected non-consecutively, as the 22nd and 24th president with the support of the entire segregationist South-down to 29.

Democratic president Woodrow Wilson was a notorious racist and Princeton's 2016 decision to keep his name on one of  their schools will surely be rescinded shortly. 28

Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected four times with the support of the segregated south, a vital part of the Democratic party's coalition. His successor, Harry S. Truman was alleged to have been a KKK member as was Lyndon Johnson in the just released JFK assassination files. But doubt is enough in these querulous times to expunge. Down to 26.

Whatever can be said about Warren Harding, John F. Kennedy, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton we know they either fathered children out of wedlock or had affairs in the White House itself so in today's moral climate they are solidly entrenched in the up to date list of suitable presidents.

The current occupant President Trump, regardless of the fact that his own Daughter and Grandchildren are Jewish has come under attack for supposed "racism" so to be safe even though he is in office he shouldn't be counted as one of the presidents. 

Thus we arrive at 25 presidents who, on current sensibilities, can be allowed to be considered as presidents of the United States including especially the East and West Coast states.

However it may be considered best to have completely new start, after all, up until the Civil Rights Act every president presided over either slavery or segregation, and make what was president number 44, Barack Obama, the actually first president displacing most certainly the unlamented George Washington.

















Thursday, October 26, 2017

If Dem's Lose Virginia Governor's Race It's Time To Close Up Shop




"Close Virginia governor polls set Democratic nerves on edge" advised Kevin Robillard at Politico and indeed the democratic party hierarchy has every reason to be deeply concerned. The implications for the future of the party if their candidate Ralph Northam loses to the GOP contender Ed Gilllespie are profound.

Every traditional omen is in play for the Dem's leading in to the election. Virginia has gone Democratic in three straight presidential elections, both its senators, Warner and Kaine (the recent VP candidate) and its current, term limited governor, Terry McAuliffe are Democrats.
For all intents and purposes Virginia is not even a "purple" state but solidly in the "blue" column on the national and statewide levels (although the state house and senate are GOP controlled).
According to the polls President Trump's national aggregate approval rating is 39% and he is similarly under water in the Old Dominion. 

In the overwhelming majority of cases mid/off term elections go against the party that won the previous presidential election, often massively so. 
However, with Donald Trump the jury is out on whether the traditional playbook has been completely torn up. While the Dem's have won a scattering of state house elections the four congressional election and one senate election were all held by the GOP.
The GOP's winning margin in each congressional election was well down on the presidential year election but still,a win under circumstances where traditionally a number of those seats may have been lost. Further the left spent upwards of $30 million in Georgia trying to get their candidate Ossoff elected and still failed.
Given all factors,Trump's purported bad approval, a Democratic safe state, former President Obama and Tim Kaine campaigning for Northam, the media advising that "Trump's base is deserting him in droves" and the history of elections.
If Northam loses the Dem's will be in a world of hurt, the only excuse, one which would most certainly be trotted out is the old chestnut "all elections are local" where a preemptive strike is on the boards already "Are Democrats trying to lose Virginia's governor's race?"
Unfortunately for the GOP if it is victorious, the muddied waters of a nation wide DNC in chaos, the concept of a totally inept Virginia Democratic campaign has merits for the Dem apologists;

"Northam refused to take a tough stance on MS-13 in order to not upset the extreme activists in his party, but in doing so, he started to lose suburban families who have seen MS-13 murder people in their neighborhoods. Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William counties have seen numerous brutal gang murders in recent years, including one in my own neighborhood in Ashburn. The Washington Post's fact-check on the issue admitted there are more MS-13 gang members in Fairfax County than there are police officers"

And while the Northam campaign literally blacked out his black running mate for Lt.Governor's image from campaign literature they then managed to insult the Hispanic community;
 "And while Northam is dealing with charges of "subtle racism," the Democratic Party of Virginia authorized a hit piece on Latina Republican House of Delegates candidate Lolita Mancheno-Smoak, putting a picture of her face by a picture of a ravenous dog and a Jason Halloween mask."

Polling is muddled as we have come to expect ranging from Quinnipiac with Northam +14 and Hampton with Gilliespie +8 (with 26% "undecided in the latter case) and the latest poll from Republican associate "The Polling Co." has Gillespie +2. Thus it may boil down to the usual battle of turnout between the DC Democratic counties and the Republican rural areas.

As with the case of Ossoff in Georgia and the Dem's $30 million dollar losing effort the fact of President Trump's supposed poor approval rating may have no bearing on the determination of conservatives to ensure the Republican movement as Trump rightly defined it is stronger than a fractured factioned, message-less Democratic Party.

The only danger for the conservative movement from a Gillespie win is that it may finally waken the media and the DNC to the truth that endless attacks on Trump and "Trumpism" is a dead end and the time has come to attend to the need for objective reporting in the case of the former and putting their house in order in the case of the latter


Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Trump's Obvious Election Win Was Hiding In Plain Sight; Will It Be So In 2020?



 The key factor, hiding in plain sight, that pointed to a victory in the election for Donald Trump was obvious but a misled, often deluded and hate filled media's blinkers made it invisible.

 The media and pundits like the Princeton Consortium's Sam Wang, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver and worst of all the HuffPost Pollster Natalie Jackson who predicted a Clinton win varying from 80% to 98% were misled by flawed polling in key battleground states.

 With hindsight it is clear the polling models did not account for voters, especially in the Midwest, who had not voted for either McCain or Romney coming out strongly for Trump in rural areas. 

 That, allied to a drop in support for Clinton by non-whites/Hispanics, was more than enough to give Trump a substantial electoral College margin.

 The polls were well within in the margin of error as regards the popular vote, which is of course irrelevant, but the fact of her  "victory" was tempered by her running up huge margins in the Democrats coastal redoubts plus Illinois. This more or less correct polling would have led the prognosticators further off the correct path of poll analysis.

 Apart from a few, mostly partisan Republican bloggers who saw a Trump victory (including, publicly, yours truly I have to say) the most prominent person who was correct was an academic who based his analysis on a set of historic parameters.
Alan Lichtman, History professor at American University developed;

"A system for predicting the popular-vote result of American presidential elections, based upon the theory of pragmatic voting. America’s electorate, according to this theory, chooses a president, not according to events of the campaign, but according to how well the party in control of the White House has governed the country.

 If the voters are content with the party in power, it gains four more years in the White House; if not, the challenging party prevails. Thus, the choice of a president does not turn on debates, advertising, speeches, endorsements, rallies, platforms, promises, or campaign tactics. Rather, presidential elections are primarily referenda on the performance of the party holding the White House."

 
Lichtman uses a series of 13 “keys,” which are true/false statements that he says can help predict whether the incumbent party will remain in the White House. 

For each of these statements, a “true” statement favors the incumbent party, but enough “false” statements portend their defeat in a presidential election. This model, he told the Washington Post in September, predicted that Trump would win"

The "keys, which include;Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president" are set out in detail.

 However, Prof.Lichtman, the media the psephologists and their pundit acolytes could all have 
spared the time and effort and misleading, for the most part, coverage by consulting one election predictor that has been correct since 1984 (now nine elections in a row.)

The Standard & Poors (S&P) financial index, when down prior to the election, saw the incumbent party lose and when up the incumbent party won-simple as that. The S&P was down 3.8% from the start of August 2016 and the incumbent party, i.e. Hillary's duly lost.



Certainly Prof.Lichtman's "keys" included two major economic parameters  but neither were as specific as the S&P guideline:

"Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms."

 What we can make from this, as long as this predictive model holds until it too fails of course as politics is always in a state of  flux in the long term, is that Bill Clinton's dictum "it's the economy stupid" is still correct and campaigns, get out the vote scrambles, scandals etc are all subservient to that principle. 

Currently the economy current is seeing substantial GDP growth, currently running at an annual rate of 3% with second quarter growth the highest in two years, unemployment down, average wages rising at the strongest pace since 2009, and the share market, as of this writing, at record highs,

 If this continues and history is still a guide all the "Trump Russia" and other "scandals" alarms and diversions MSM punditry and especially poor polling, will meet the same fate in the 2018 mid-terms and Trump's reelection in 2020 as they did in the 2016 election.

Friday, October 13, 2017

From The Media; Commentary For Conservatives 9/13/17 Part#1

It's Official: Democrats Are The Extremists Today LINK

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 LINK

Trumpist populism, though not without its blind spots, has a more incisive diagnosis of the defining political conflict of our age and of the central threats confronting the country than any of the other competing worldviews.

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Trump and Iran nuclear deal: Smart chess play could motivate the mullahs  LINK

It costs the president nothing, does not wreck the agreement, does not reimpose sanctions, and can be reversed if Tehran proves it is complying.

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Harvey Weinstein and Hollywood’s secular, liberal indulgences 

LINK

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Trump Made the Right Move on UNESCO

The agency is a den of anti-Semites.

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The general schools doltish press corps

LINK

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 Trump strikes a blow for health-care freedom

Free at last! That’s the message for millions who don’t get health coverage at work and, until now, faced two dismal options: going without insurance or paying Obama­Care’s soaring premiums. On Thursday, President Trump announced changes that will allow consumers to choose coverage options costing half of what ObamaCare’s cheapest bronze plans cost.

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Is Trump the Heir to Reagan?

 LINK

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 Hollywood Should Never Lecture America Again

LINK

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How the NFL Lost to Trump 
LINK 
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Thursday, October 12, 2017

Palin's America Stands Aghast At Dem/Hollywood America






The righteous indignation at the monstrous Harvey Weinstein, his enablers, those who knew but kept silent and the Democratic Party hypocrites who took his money and posed with him has rippled across the conservative media and middle America.

The outstanding commentator, with first hand experience of Hollywood Roger L.Simon has to my mind best and succinctly summed up the situation:

Hollywood’s politics have always been a self-serving charade, a liberal masquerade for a rapacious and lubricious lifestyle.  But now, thanks to the Weinstein scandal, we see it more clearly than ever. And it couldn't be more repellent. (I had always thought Bill Clinton would have made the greatest studio executive of all time. Now I'm convinced of it.)...

They have abandoned the culture -- and our children -- to the creepiest people imaginable.  What is going on in Hollywood is far from being just about Harvey. It’s approaching a pandemic"

The moral rot in American society started with President Clinton, the exposure of what the liberal establishment really thought of the non-coastal elite was, inadvertently exposed, and made plain with then candidate Obama's "bitter clingers" and Michelle Obama's "I have never been proud of my country" remarks.

Certainly President Nixon was ethically bankrupt over Watergate and President G.W. Bush was wrong on Iraq but neither man was an elitist nor personally morally corrupt.

In the 2016 election the voters, outside the Democrat's coastal redoubts, clearly signaled they had had enough and wanted wholesale change, especially from the Beltway crowd that Hillary and her cohorts represented. 

What has come to light in respect of just how morally bankrupt, corrupt, cynical and disgusting that cohort is has, forever, removed whatever amount of scales there were to drop from the public's eyes.

Sarah Palin saw all this in 2008 and for her honesty, unbending Christian values and worst of all being pro-life was vilified, satirized and hated on with a vehemence never seen before in American political life. 

 Those at the very forefront of this endless attack were the same Hollywood denizens and their media supporters who have now been exposed as morally bankrupt or utter cowards in reaping the benefits from  their obsequiousness and speaking up when it was safe years later.

The Democratic Party, despite their  (some not all) returning Weinstein's tainted money is completely tied their Hollywood supporters in the public's mind. 

It is unimaginable that the very people who turned against that party in 2016 would be attracted back to it after it has been exposed as simply a vehicle for immoral leftism.

In the end Palin and Palin's America won, not through Palin herself being elected of course but via "Palinism in the presidency i.e. her chosen candidate, with the wherewithal to finance the campaign, won on her values. 

The roots of Donald Trump's historic presidential victory go back eight years to the 2008 presidential contest and the V.P. candidacy of Sarah Palin.  Palin, or more properly Palinism, had many of the same characteristics as the Trump ascendancy: a robust patriotic populism driven by intense love of country and rejection of big-government internationalism embodied by Barack Hussein Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Certainly President Trump is not "Palin" in respect of his life story but he has become the vehicle for traditional values and is, as much as the GOP will let him, keeping his policy promises and, most certainly keeping his promises as regards the Supreme Court and lower level judiciary appointments.

For all their wealth and power and attached Hollywood glamor the Democratic party is at its lowest ebb office wise in 100 years. The bringing into the full light of day its disdain for the common man and the corrupt bargain with the decedents of Hollywood must be a disgusting sight to all Americans who hold the traditional view of American society dear.