Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Would Bernie Sanders Have Won-Absolutely!


Now that the post-election hyperbole and grief has settled it is of value to consider a plausible "what if" analysis  which has value looking forwards.
 
Bernie Sanders could, and in fact would, have won the 2016 election. 




The traditional point of view that what a candidate says, what turns out to have been dug out about his or her past from the mists of time destroying their chances was itself destroyed by the Trump. and to a lesser degree, the Clinton campaigns.

The "Access Hollywood" tapes and Trump's astounding statements, too numerous to list here that the media gorged on had zero effect, similarly all of Hillary's "Benghazi , pay for play" and etc murkiness simply reinforced preconceived notions about her (and Bill). The bottom line was it was a change election after a two term rule of one party.

The only way the Dem's could have won under the circumstances would have been to have run someone who was completely disassociated with the public's perceptions of a failed administration (not failed president). 

This is exactly the strategy McCain tried in 2008 when he selected Governor Palin as his VP running mate. Palin was totally untainted by the Bush administration and rallied the base to such a degree that McCain's moribund campaign shot into the lead and he well could have won. That the Wall St. crash, not Palin, scuppered it is by the by.

Sanders would also have been unencumbered, totally, with the Obama administrations neglect of the rust belt states and in fact would have been the perfect candidate as that is where, plus Florida, the election was won and lost .

The above map is a minimum for Sanders 2016.  It does not give him * Wisconsin where the Clinton vote fell an astounding 238,500 from president Obama's 2012 state total (Trump only added 2,000 to Romney's).
The local GOP machine may still have delivered the state for Trump but that is highly questionable.


The +3% of Hispanic voters who voted third party, for Stein/Johnson and remarkably 82,970 "write in" and 25,000 "others" included in the 375,000 Florida vote totals would, surely, had been enough to overcome Trump's 113,000 winning margin.

 "Mrs. Clinton drew 65 percent of the Latino vote compared with 29 percent for Mr. Trump. when you compare the outcome to 2012. President Barack Obama took 71 percent of the Latino vote in the exit polls that year compared with 27 percent for Mitt Romney."


In Michigan, a state where Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton running on a similar "jobs" message to Trump's appeal to blue collar workers, it is as near a certainty as these things can be that 22% of Jill Stein's 51,000 votes would have gone to Sanders easily overcoming Trump's tiny 11,000 win.

"In 2012, Barack Obama won Wayne County, which includes Detroit, with 595,253 votes. Clinton won Wayne County with 517.022 – 78,231 fewer than Obama. Those numbers reflect a weak turnout, especially by African Americans, despite the millions and millions spent by Democrats to mobilize voters.
 
Had blacks turned out, Clinton would have won Michigan. Had even a fraction of the more than 50,000 votes for Green Party candidate Stein gone to Clinton, she would have won the state."
 
Not running Sanders is, quite possibly, the death knell for the Democratic party as currently constituted.
It is utterly powerless at every level of government, the litany of elective offices lost is well known and it is leaderless with Pelosi/Schumer the unattractive face of the party.

2016 was the perfect year for a Sanders candidacy. In 2020 he will be, obviously, too old and if the Trump massive tax cuts and infrastructure spending boosts the economy, especially in the rust belt, Sanders message will have been blunted.

 An Elizabeth Warren candidacy would combine the worst of the shrill Hillary imagery, with her "fake Indian" baggage, at a time when radical leftist proposals would be out of place. It would be easy to envisage a disastrous Mondale/McGovern electoral college disaster.

The Democratic Party ran the worst possible campaign with the worst possible candidate for which Republicans can be extremely grateful.

It is highly doubtful if the following article extract would have been written if Sanders had run;

"Millennials might have been Hillary Clinton's Achilles' heel. 

Obama won 60 percent of the millennial vote. Clinton got only about 55 percent. (We're using "millennials" as shorthand for voters between the ages of 18 and 29, but some millennials are in their 30s).

The real shift seems to have come from an increase in third-party candidate support, potentially low turnout, and stronger than expected support for Donald Trump in some Midwestern states that Clinton lost.
Among voters younger than 29, 55 percent supported Clinton and 37 percent supported Trump, according to national exit polls."

"Millennials didn’t show up for Hillary Clinton in the Rust Belt"

“In Pennsylvania, Clinton badly underperformed [President Barack] Obama and Gov. Tom Wolf (who won election in 2014), among younger voters — Wolf carried them by 24 points, Obama by 28 points, while Clinton won the millennial vote by 19 percent,” Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report wrote. “More important, young voters made up a smaller share of the electorate than they did in 2012 — 16 percent to 19 percent.”


 "In Wisconsin, the millennial vote is the story — in the fact they simply didn’t show up for Mrs. Clinton.
“In 2012, 18-29-year-olds made up 21 percent of the electorate and Obama carried them by 23 points,” Ms. Walter wrote. “In 2016, these younger voters made up just 17 percent of the electorate and Clinton won them by just 3 points.”


But of course Sanders would have been able to accomplish nothing with an extremely hostile congress.

*All electoral results are rounded for convenience. the full figures are at the links provided.










Saturday, March 25, 2017

Black Activists Go Jill Stein Green; Major Danger For Dem's



Black activists express vehement support for Jill Stein and the Greens. These election day broadcasts, and the callers into the programs, not only castigated the DNC and the Clinton's in terms stronger than I have heard from conservatives, but appear to have completely moved from the Democratic Party.

If the breach with a growing segment of the Black community is, as it seems, irreparable and the DNC runs another centrist in 2020 (Hillary!) I would firmly believe the Democrats will be in serious danger of becoming a permanent east and west coast rump party and the Greens a significant force.

The Green's commitment to Black activism/activists was signaled with Stein's choice of vice-presidential candidate;

Jill Stein Selects Human Rights Activist Ajamu Baraka as Vice-Presidential Running Mate

p_Ajamu_Baraka.jpgGreen Party presumptive Presidential nominee Jill Stein has offered her vice-presidential bid to international human rights scholar and activist Ajamu Baraka.
 "I am honored and excited to announce that my running mate in the 2016 presidential election will be Ajamu Baraka, activist, writer, intellectual and organizer with a powerful voice, vision, and lifelong commitment to building true political revolution,” Stein announced.
 "Ajamu Baraka is a powerful, eloquent spokesperson for the transformative, radical agenda whose time has come - an agenda of economic, social, racial, gender, climate, indigenous and immigrant justice. Ajamu’s life’s work has embodied the immortal words of Dr. Martin Luther King: Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere," Stein continued. "In this hour of unprecedented crisis, we are honored to lift up a unified movement for justice in the only national political party that is not held hostage by corporate money, lobbyists and super-PACs. We look forward to bringing this agenda for justice to the American people in the exciting race ahead Stein said she also discussed the position with author Chris Hedges, single payer healthcare activist and US Senate candidate Dr. Margaret Flowers (Green - Maryland), economic justice advocate and TPP opponent Kevin Zeese of PopularResistance.org, and Green Party activist and former Black Panther Party leader, Aaron Dixon. There had been earlier speculation that Stein would offer the spot to ex-Sanders surrogate and former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner, who had been unfairly spurned at last week’s Democratic National Convention for her principled criticism of the DNC and Hillary Clinton. 
Tim Black TBTV AT THIS LINK (Not the picture)



Yvette Carnell "Breaking Brown"




Friday, March 24, 2017

Gov.Palin " Sarah Palin on Paul Ryan’s ‘RINO-Care’' ( Fix It by Electing Conservatives)

The fact that Breitbart had a major post from Governor Palin on March 11th criticizing Ryan's healthcare plan leads one to suspect Trump/Bannon knew the Ryan "bill" would fail. It is hard to understand why otherwise Bannon would have allowed such a strong critique.

Where this goes from here is unknown but Speaker Ryan looks an absolute disaster after having had 8 years to craft a working bill.

The administration is stuck with Ryan for the time being as to have a caucus revolt and remove him would cause market turmoil and roil the admin.

 What this portends for Trump's tax cuts and Mexico wall is up in the air-but expect the share market to continue its gyrations after the big drop as the view of the admin as 'neutered' will prevail in the short term until Trump gets a legislative win.


The long term answer to this problem is to primary all centrist RINO's until there is a conservative caucus majority in the House. It will shortly be time for Governor Palin to hit the 2018 campaign trail for true conservatives.

Exclusive — Sarah Palin on Paul Ryan’s ‘RINO-Care’: ‘Socialized Medicine’; President Trump Will ‘Step In and Fix It’

LINK

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Leftist States/Courts Try Again To Overturn "Travel Ban." Constitutional Convention of States The Remedy



" Washington State to Join Hawaii in Challenge to New Travel Ban 
Washington state will ask U.S. District Court Senior Judge James L. Robart to apply the temporary injunction he issued last month on Trump's initial executive order to the newly revised travel ban." NBC News "

It is beyond ridiculous that the president and his administration, acting for the defense of America and the best interests and safety of its citizens, can have that action overturned by the leftist coastal states and their activist judiciary.

The initial travel ban was overturned by the same forces seeking to overturn the subsequent ban. That America may have been endangered and compromised by the removal of the element of surprise with the initial travel ban, with who knows what dangerous elements subsequently arriving in America is bad enough, any further delay in implementation could be disastrous.

If any terrorist attacks happen, directly linked to terrorists who have entered during the period of the overturning of travel bans then the blood will be directly on the hands of the leftist elements that enabled empowered such actions.

Clearly these judicial activists have to be stopped from potentially endangering the country. There are three remedies.

1. Confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court as soon as possible, even by the "nuclear option' if required, to restore a conservative  Supreme Court majority and request an urgent review of the travel ban.

2. The people who elected President Trump and who clearly see terrorism as a major concern and one of the main reasons they elected him to deal with it must lend every effort to having a constitutional Convention of States called to empower the executive through a constitutional amendment to deal effectively with "all enemies both domestic and foreign." 

An amendment, setting out in clear terms that the executive has the authority to temporarily or permanently block entry of those reasonably considered to be a threat woudl put an end to leftist judicial grandstanding and activism.

"In order to legally compel Congress to call a convention, 34 states need to pass similar resolutions. Currently, 29 states meet the requirement"

3. Conservatives must flood to the polls in November 2018 to ensure at least 8-10 more Republican senators are elected giving the administration  'super majority" with the ability to press forwards with all required legislation as well as ensuring a continuing majority in the House and in governorships to ensure electoral boundaries are fair in the ensuing readjustment following the next census.

Monday, March 6, 2017

11 Major Thinkers From Schweikart To Lifson; Dem's 20 Months From Armageddon




​​Here are the simple stark facts, the Democratic Party, at least as it is now constructed, faces disaster in a scant 20 months (11/6/18) from today;



Washington Times "

"And here comes 2018

The Democrats face grim prospects in the midterm congressional elections"

"The Democrats need to pick up a net of three seats to win the Senate (there’s no realistic prospect of taking the House in the foreseeable future), and saddest of all for the Democrats, the party will defend 25 seats next year and the Republicans, only 8. Only one Republican senator, Dean Heller of Nevada, a freshman, is in a state won by Hillary Clinton, an indication of the temperature of the water.

 No other Republican seat, says the authoritative Cook Political Report, “appears to be even remotely in danger.”
But several Democratic incumbents may be fighting for survival in states that Donald Trump carried by margins up to a remarkable 42 percent. These endangered incumbents include Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Jon Tester in Montana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri. They have survived frights before, but this time the politics is strange and new."

If the GOP takes eight senate seats from the Dem's they will have a filibuster  proof majority to add to their control of Congress, the presidency, the Supreme Court and they will have total power. What would be left of the Dem's would be a faction ridden rump most likely controlled by the Sanders radical wing.


"Republicans control about 4,170 state legislative seats across the country, almost 1,000 more than they held in 2009 when Barack Obama was sworn in. Today, 33 governors are Republican; when Obama took office, just 21 governors were Republican."

The compete rejection of Obama would reach right down to every strata of government. The Obama presidency was a complete aberration driven by an infatuated media and only came about because of the G.W. Bush disastrous foreign policy and the crazed financial community greed which led to the 2008 collapse.

Rahm Emanuel has a clear understanding that that disaster can not be fixed overnight but he offers no prescription, except time, to right the sinking ship. The obvious solution, jettisoning the "social justice warriors" the Sanders faction, and creating a platform which discards the stealth attack on the second amendment, leaves "identity politics" and social issues alone (or to the states) and addressing the concerns of industrial workers is a bridge to far. But not crossing that bridge will simply hasten the end of the Dem's.


"Rahm Emanuel Tells Dems to ‘Take a Chill Pill’: ‘It Ain’t Gonna Happen in 2018’


Pam Key   Breitbart

 
David Lieb is also realistic;

"For Trump Foes, Democratic Gains May Remain Elusive in 2018"
David Lieb Real Clear Politics

And voices from the left,whose prescription will be ignored if the Sanders/Warren wing triumphs;

"How the Democrats can rebuild"

Joel  Krotkin OC Register

"To win consistently in the near term, and compete in red states, Democrats need to adjust the cultural and racial agenda dominating the “resistance” to one that addresses directly the challenges faced by working- and middle-class families of all races. This notion of identity politics, as opposed to those of social class, is embraced by the progressives’ allies in the media, academia, urban speculators, Hollywood and Silicon Valley, since environmentalism, gender and race issues do not directly threaten their wealth or privileged status."

______________________________


Gautam Makunda reviews the policy options for the Dem's and warns that "Time is not on their side"

"If Democrats Want to Challenge Trump, They Need a New Strategy"


Gautam Mukunda Harvard Business Review
______________________________

Hatalsky and Kessler explain why "identity politics" is a dead end because the Hispanic vote is mostly in safe Dem's states so no matter how it grows it won't affect the Electoral College.

"Why demographics weren’t — and won’t be — destiny for Democrats"


Krogstad and Lopez expand on the danger/ dead end of identity politics

"Hillary Clinton won Latino vote but fell below 2012 support for Obama"


   at Slate   covers similar, if by now obvious ground, of Hispanics identifying as white and young people growing conservative as they age

"The Coming Democratic Majority? Not So Fast."

Demography, despite the dreams of the left and the fears of the right, is not destiny. Tempting though it is for liberals to think that history is on their side, there is no realistic substitute to winning the battle of ideas. To beat Trump, Democrats will have to build a convincing case they can take to the nation as a whole.

______________________________

Reid Wilson makes the point that unless the Dem's make significant inroads into electing governors and state legislators in 2018 they will be effectively shut out of the redistricting of Congressional electoral boundaries ensuring a further long-term grip on Congress for the GOP.


"Democrats face fierce urgency of 2018"


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