Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Final Tracking Polls 11/8. Most Accurate 2012 IBD Trump +2 USC/LATimes Trump +3.2

 To confirm;My analysis of 6 tracking polls; 




USC               Trump 46.8.%   Clinton 43.6 %   Trump +3.2

IBD                Trump 45.0%.    Clinton 43.0       Trump +2.0
PPD               Trump 45.8%  Clinton 45.2. %    Trump +0.6
Rasmussen  Trump 43%     Clinton 45%       Clinton +2.0
UPI/C             Trump 46.1%  Clinton 48.7       Clinton+2.6
ABC               Trump 43%     Clinton 47%      Clinton+4.0

Tracking Polls Final Aggregate Clinton +0.4 

MSM "One Off " polls final aggregate Clinton +4.1

In the most accurate polls from 2012 and the only ones of all final polls to predict a Trump win either they are right or the MSM polls are if it is these two there will be a revolution in polling;

IBD Final poll TRUMP +2
USC/LATimes final poll TRUMP +3.2

Pictures via Eric Dondero R

As detailed below Trump's rise with Hispanics, in the USC pool at least is remarkable and is actually growing.
He is now only 3.1 points behind Clinton at Clinton 46.7 Trump 43.6-his highest ever in this poll.

The other surprising result has been the steady rise in support from the college educated which was supposed to be Trump's major weakness yet the graph tells a different story; 

Trump's 39.6 support from this group is also his highest since the poll began;

As detailed below yesterday saw the third consecutive day of a drift to Clinton across the six tracking polls. I speculated that this might actually represent a return to the levels seen prior to the Comey shock as it marked a full week after and all the trackers had worked their way through the voters reactions.

Previous days report

The question was; where to from there? A continued move to Clinton, a tie right through to the election or would it break to Trump like the state polls have been doing.

If the new USC poll is an indication, which we may or may not see in the rest of the trackers, may be the final "Reagan 1980" tipping point.

Trump was only +1.5 in USC yesterday he is now +5.4. What drove this rise in particular was his continuing strength with women which must be a shock to the Clinton campaign. Trump is now at his highest with females since the poll began. He has closed the gap to only 7 points Clinton 46.9 to Trump 42.9 at one point he was 13 points in arrears.

IN USC's Hispanic polling Trump has almost completely closed the gap with Clinton Clinton 45.8 Trump 42.4 only 3.4 points separate them. Whether this accurately reflects the total Hispanic voting population would be surprising but the trend-lines mean something clearly population.

Seniors have shifted remarkably to Trump in the last few days Trump 54.3% Clinton 40.8% Trump +13.5 

 And Trump's new voters among the less educated have opened a massive gap Trump 55.7  Clinton 36.9 Trump +18.8