A slew of nationwide polls sees Trump continue his + 40% polling ranging from 42% to 49%
The important trendline continues upwards at an average of 45.8% a massive 16 points ahead of Cruz
Wisconsin by Congressional District analysis;
Breakdown of support by congressional district (CD):
CD 1 Milwaukee
Trump: 29.8%
Cruz: 27.6%
Kasich 26.3%
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CD 2 Milwaukee suburbs
Kasich: 33.1%
Trump: 26.6%
Cruz: 18.1%
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CD3 SW Wisconsin
Trump: 31.8%
Kasich 25.6%
Cruz 22.6%
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CD 4 Milwaukee North
Cruz: 30.1%
Kasich 25.5%
Trump 24.2%
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CD 5 MidState/Madison
Cruz: 32.2%
Kasich 28.3%
Trump 26.7%
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CD 6 West
Trump 36.1%
Kasich 29.0%
Cruz 24.7%
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CD 7 North
Trump: 35.5%
Cruz: 23.7%
Kasich 21.3%
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CD 8 Green Bay
Trump: 29.4%
Kasich 25.5%
Cruz 21.1%
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Trump actually leads in 5 CD's, Cruz in 2 and Kasich in 1. If those results hold, Trump will walk away with 33 D (15 from CD and 18 for winning statewide vote. Earlier today I predicted 30 D.
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Trump support in the Mid-Atlantic and New England:
TRUMP 65.0
Kasich 19.0
In New York Trump is 25 or 26 points ahead of Kasich and on track to win at least 79 delegates
Here is a breakdown of the 27 CD's in NY State from the Optimus poll:
CD------------------ 1--------2---------3-------4-------5-------6-------7------8------9
Trump----------- 56.3-----58.6----52.8---50.6----52.0--57.8---40.7--51.8--50,9
Kasich-----------18.5-----17.4----22.6---20.7----15.7--18.5---26.2--20.0--18.7
Cruz------------- 9.1------8.0-----10.3---13.1----15.0--13.0---17.9--10.3--21.4
----------------------10-------11-------12------13------14----15-----16-----17-----18
Trump------------39.5-----65.3-----42.0---28.7----58.0--35.9--49.2--50.2--50.0
Kasich-----------31.7-----16.0-----33.6---31.4----16.0---14.7--25.7-22.9--22.6
Cruz--------------21.3------8.8------13.0---17.5----13.8---17.5-10.8-12.4--13.3
---------------------19-------20-------21------22-------23-----24-----25----26----27
Trump-----------45.0----38.2----43.8----39.6-----41.7---37.8--43.0--50.0--49.7
Kasich----------20.4-----25.8---25.8-----23.9-----20.0--24.5---24.8--22.8--21.8
Cruz-------------18.0-----16.1---16.1----16.3------17.3--16.2--14.9--11.9--13.5
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Trump leads in 26 of 27 CD's.
He is polling >50% in 12 CD's; he is between 40% and 50% in 7 CD's.
Anyway Trump would earn 79 delegates:
12 x 3= 36
14 X 2= 28
1 x 1 = 1
PV= 14
Total 79
If Trump could convert the 7 CD's currently below 50% to > above 50% he would add another 7 D to arrive at 86D.
