Thursday, March 31, 2016

Donald Trump's Amazing Poll Day 03/31/16 USA +19 Wisconsin 56% New York Tied -1

After the media went berserk over the Marquette poll of Wisconsin which showed Cruz ten points ahead of Trump (a poll of under 500 with a margin of error of almost 6%) a new PPP (Democratic leaning firm) shows Trump and Cruz virtually tied. 

This mirrors a previous Optimus poll which Trump two points ahead. The previous Marquette poll also had Trump on 30% so they lead us to believe Trump gained nothing from Carson's endorsement and Rubio quitting.


Nationwide Trump is still miles ahead From 9 to 19 points depending on the poll. This variation is why the aggregate of polls is what counts and Trump leads
by near 14 points.



And New York; if this hold trump could win all 95 delegates


Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Donald Trumps Path To the Nomination Via 1237 Delegates Looks Solid

Donald Trump with his current delegate haul of 752 now needs 485 bound delegates to cross the 1237 required to be nominated on the first ballot out of 757 bound delegates remaining.
Kasich cannot of course be nominated on the first ballot and neither can Senator Cruz who needs 774 Delegates out of 757 bound Delegates remaining to make it to 1237 which is an impossibility. Thus it is clear that both men are in the race to deny Trump his 1237 on the first ballot. It is also clear that Messrs. Romney/Bush/Walker/Rubio and all the other Establishment people who have belatedly endorsed Cruz are doing it only to stop Trump and then dump Cruz at their leisure after the first ballot.
An analysis, based on the most current polling for New York and Wisconsin, most reasonably finds the Trump poll from those two states are 79 delegates from New York 33 from Wisconsin. The upcoming Northeastern Trump friendly states could, very easily supply the following delegates;
Wisconsin 33 New York 79 Connecticut 28 Maryland 38 Delaware 16 Rhode Island 12 Pennsylvania 17=223 +752 he currently has = 975
Then another 265 from the 48o to come including the big one California with 172 so the target is doable. I am pretty confident American Samoa's 9 delegates are in the bag at the convention and Trump will get some of Pennsylvania's unbound 54 delegates
I make the total pool after the above states is 480+54 +9=543 to get 265 from. Thus Trump needs an average of 49% from then on.

The Wisconsin primary on Tuesday April 5th will be the GOP establishments last, realistic chance, to if not halt, then at least to slow down Donald Trump's march to the magic figure of 1237 delegate votes and the Republican nomination.

Wisconsin is, after another hiatus, the gateway to the Northeastern states, commencing with New York on April 19th and then five further on April 26th.


These Trump **friendly, to say the least, states provide a massive haul of 213 delegates. Only Rhode Island is proportional in awarding its 19 delegates whereas Maryland and Delaware are winner take all. 

*** New York (as Connecticut) has most of its delegates awarded by congressional district and if a candidate gets 50% he gets all three in each. Trump is 64% in a recent New York poll (He averages 56% across 3 March polls) and could possibly win all 95 delegates if that holds. 

Pennsylvania is an odd mixture with only 17 of its 71 delegates awarded to the winner and 54 "unaligned" so in effect it gives fewer delegates than tiny Rhode Island.

Thus from Wisconsin on the 5th to Rhode Island on the 26th Trump could quite readily have collected
975 or so delegates with a further 490 or so delegates available in later primaries including Trump friendly New Jersey (51) and California (a massive 172). 

It seems obvious that a Trump win, by no how small 
 (a margin ) in the winner take most state would mark the end of any chance for Cruz to win the nomination on the first ballot

_____________________________________________
*Wisconsin

Breakdown of support by congressional district (CD):
CD 1 Milwaukee
Trump: 29.8%
Cruz: 27.6%
Kasich 26.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 2 Milwaukee suburbs
Kasich: 33.1%
Trump: 26.6%
Cruz: 18.1%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD3 SW Wisconsin
Trump: 31.8%
Kasich 25.6%
Cruz 22.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 4 Milwaukee North
Cruz: 30.1%
Kasich 25.5%
Trump 24.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 5 MidState/Madison
Cruz: 32.2%
Kasich 28.3%
Trump 26.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 6 West
Trump 36.1%
Kasich 29.0%
Cruz 24.7%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 7 North
Trump: 35.5%
Cruz: 23.7%
Kasich 21.3%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 8 Green Bay
Trump: 29.4%
Kasich 25.5%
Cruz 21.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump actually leads in 5 CD's, Cruz in 2 and Kasich in 1. If those results hold, Trump will walk away with 33 D (15 from CD and 18 for winning statewide vote. Earlier today I predicted 30 D.
_____________________________________________________________________
**
Trump support in the Mid-Atlantic and New England:
TRUMP 65.0
Kasich
 19.0
_______________________________________________

***New York

Here is a breakdown of the 27 CD's in NY State from the Optimus poll:

CD------------------ 1--------2---------3-------4-------5-------6-------7------8------9
Trump----------- 56.3-----58.6----52.8---50.6----52.0--57.8---40.7--51.8--50,9
Kasich-----------18.5-----17.4----22.6---20.7----15.7--18.5---26.2--20.0--18.7
Cruz------------- 9.1------8.0-----10.3---13.1----15.0--13.0---17.9
--10.3--21.4
----------------------10-------11-------12------13------14----15-----16-----17-----18
Trump------------39.5-----65.3-----42.0---28.7----58.0--35.9--49.2--50.2--50.0
Kasich-----------31.7-----16.0-----33.6---31.4----16.0---14.7--25.7-22.9--22.6
Cruz--------------21.3------8.8------13.0---17.5----13.8---17.5-10.8-12.4--13.3
---------------------19-------20-------21------22-------23-----24-----25----26----27
Trump-----------45.0----38.2----43.8----39.6-----41.7---37.8--43.0--50.0--49.7
Kasich----------20.4-----25.8---25.8-----23.9-----20.0--24.5---24.8--22.8--21.8
Cruz-------------18.0-----16.1---16.1----16.3------17.3--16.2--14.9--11.9--13.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump leads in 26 of 27 CD's.

He is polling >50% in 12 CD's; he is between 40% and 50% in 7 CD's.
Anyway Trump would earn 79 delegates:
12 x 3= 36
14 X 2= 28
1 x 1 = 1
PV= 14

Total 79


Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Donald Trump's Amazing Poll Day 03/29/16; 21 Points Above Cruz Nationwide

Donald Trump regains the lead in the vital state of Wisconsin in the latest state poll from Huffington post Pollster


A slew of nationwide polls sees Trump continue his + 40% polling ranging from 42% to 49%



The important trendline continues upwards at an average of 45.8% a massive 16 points ahead of Cruz


Wisconsin by Congressional District analysis;

Breakdown of support by congressional district (CD):
CD 1 Milwaukee
Trump: 29.8%
Cruz: 27.6%
Kasich 26.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 2 Milwaukee suburbs
Kasich: 33.1%
Trump: 26.6%
Cruz: 18.1%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD3 SW Wisconsin
Trump: 31.8%
Kasich 25.6%
Cruz 22.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 4 Milwaukee North
Cruz: 30.1%
Kasich 25.5%
Trump 24.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 5 MidState/Madison
Cruz: 32.2%
Kasich 28.3%
Trump 26.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 6 West
Trump 36.1%
Kasich 29.0%
Cruz 24.7%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 7 North
Trump: 35.5%
Cruz: 23.7%
Kasich 21.3%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 8 Green Bay
Trump: 29.4%
Kasich 25.5%
Cruz 21.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump actually leads in 5 CD's, Cruz in 2 and Kasich in 1. If those results hold, Trump will walk away with 33 D (15 from CD and 18 for winning statewide vote. Earlier today I predicted 30 D.

_____________________________________________________________________

Trump support in the Mid-Atlantic and New England:
TRUMP 65.0
Kasich  19.0



In New York Trump is 25 or 26 points ahead of Kasich and on track to win at least 79 delegates






Here is a breakdown of the 27 CD's in NY State from the Optimus poll:


CD------------------ 1--------2---------3-------4-------5-------6-------7------8------9 
Trump----------- 56.3-----58.6----52.8---50.6----52.0--57.8---40.7--51.8--50,9
Kasich-----------18.5-----17.4----22.6---20.7----15.7--18.5---26.2--20.0--18.7
Cruz------------- 9.1------8.0-----10.3---13.1----15.0--13.0---17.9--10.3--21.4
----------------------10-------11-------12------13------14----15-----16-----17-----18
Trump------------39.5-----65.3-----42.0---28.7----58.0--35.9--49.2--50.2--50.0
Kasich-----------31.7-----16.0-----33.6---31.4----16.0---14.7--25.7-22.9--22.6
Cruz--------------21.3------8.8------13.0---17.5----13.8---17.5-10.8-12.4--13.3
---------------------19-------20-------21------22-------23-----24-----25----26----27
Trump-----------45.0----38.2----43.8----39.6-----41.7---37.8--43.0--50.0--49.7
Kasich----------20.4-----25.8---25.8-----23.9-----20.0--24.5---24.8--22.8--21.8
Cruz-------------18.0-----16.1---16.1----16.3------17.3--16.2--14.9--11.9--13.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump leads in 26 of 27 CD's. 


He is polling >50% in 12 CD's; he is between 40% and 50% in 7 CD's.
Anyway Trump would earn 79 delegates:
12 x 3= 36
14 X 2= 28
1 x 1 = 1
PV= 14


Total 79
If Trump could convert the 7 CD's currently below 50% to > above 50% he would add another 7 D to arrive at 86D.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Wisconsin; The Establishments Last, Last Gasp Stop Trump Attempt.

The Wisconsin primary on Tuesday April 5th will be the GOP establishments last, realistic chance, to if not halt, then at least to slow down Donald Trump's march to the magic figure of 1237 delegate votes and the Republican nomination.

Coming after Trump's major delegate haul in Arizona, which put him at 755 delegates  (ignore all the media outlets which have him at  lower figure) Wisconsin with its winner take all further haul of *33 delegates would put Trump at near 788 delegates, massively ahead of Cruz at about 466 and of course Kasich at about 144 (with no mathematical chance of winning).

Wisconsin is, after another hiatus, the gateway to the Northeastern states, commencing with New York on April 19th and then five further on April 26th.



These Trump **friendly, to say the least, states provide a massive haul of 213 delegates. Only Rhode Island is proportional in awarding its 19 delegates whereas Maryland and Delaware are winner take all. 

New York (as Connecticut) has most of its delegates awarded by congressional district and if a candidate gets 50% he gets all three in each. Trump is 64% in the latest New York poll and could possibly win all 95 delegates if that holds. 

Pennsylvania is an odd mixture with only 17 of its 71 delegates awarded to the winner and 54 "unaligned" so in effect it gives fewer delegates than tiny Rhode Island.

Thus from Wisconsin on the 5th to Rhode Island on the 26th Trump could quite readily have collected
990 or so delegates with a further 490 or so delegates available in later primaries including Trump friendly New Jersey (51) and California (a massive 172). 

It seems obvious that a Trump win, by no how small 
 (a margin ) in winner take all would mark the end of any chance for Cruz to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Clearly the only reason Cruz, and especially Kasich, would have for staying in the campaign would be to hope they can take enough delegates from the post Northeastern states to deny Trump getting to 1237 and the hoping for the best from a contested convention. 

The GOP establishment can obviously count the same numbers as I can and have discovered, all of a sudden, that Cruz is now not the"most hated man in the senate" and Kasich has sterling qualities, none of which were apparent when Jeb Bush was running.

It is all so blatantly dishonest and utterly hypocritical. Obviously both Cruz and Kasich are saddle less riders on a horse who is being curried and groomed for another rider who would be saddled and spurred in all his establishment glory once Messrs. Cruz and Kasich were disposed of in a contested convention. That these gentlemen think otherwise is either stubbornness beyond hope or vainglory in extremis and is a sad reflection on them.

That the establishment believes that robbing Trump of the nomination through their two puppets would not cause a massive revolt by the grass roots and the lowest turnout in GOP history is a further example of arrogance and stupidity and a Pyrrhic "victory" which could see the end of the GOP altogether.

But all this cast of establishment misfits and their lackeys will carry on at least till Wisconsin. Watch for massive pressure on Kasich to drop out and the call for his supporters to tactically vote for Cruz. In reality the best bet for Kasich would be for his supporters to tactically vote for Trump to eliminate Cruz after his disaster in Arizona. But, apparently being irreparably dull witted they do the opposite 

"Report: Kasich pulling radio ads in Wisconsin"

Given its importance every media lickspittle, every establishment dollar, every lie no matter how gross, every fake "push poll" every Wisconsin establishment figure will be thrown at Trump without let up or quarter.

Against them are the people's lion and the people. If they prevail in Wisconsin the very demons of Hell will have failed and Trump's victory will be assured.

*
Breakdown of support by congressional district (CD):
CD 1 Milwaukee
Trump: 29.8%
Cruz: 27.6%
Kasich 26.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 2 Milwaukee suburbs
Kasich: 33.1%
Trump: 26.6%
Cruz: 18.1%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD3 SW Wisconsin
Trump: 31.8%
Kasich 25.6%
Cruz 22.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 4 Milwaukee North
Cruz: 30.1%
Kasich 25.5%
Trump 24.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 5 MidState/Madison
Cruz: 32.2%
Kasich 28.3%
Trump 26.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 6 West
Trump 36.1%
Kasich 29.0%
Cruz 24.7%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 7 North
Trump: 35.5%
Cruz: 23.7%
Kasich 21.3%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 8 Green Bay
Trump: 29.4%
Kasich 25.5%
Cruz 21.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump actually leads in 5 CD's, Cruz in 2 and Kasich in 1. If those results hold, Trump will walk away with 33 D (15 from CD and 18 for winning statewide vote. Earlier today I predicted 30 D.

_____________________________________________________________________
**
Trump support in the Mid-Atlantic and New England:
TRUMP 65.0
Mailbox 19.0


Monday, March 21, 2016

Donald Trump's Remarkable Polling Day Hits 40% RCP Aggregate For 1st Time

UPDATE; Donald Trump's aggregate average at RCP has now passed the 41% level (44%) his highest ever







By any standards this is a remarkable result for Donald Trump. With Rubio gone the meme that Trump will fail when the field is "winnowed" is exploded as is the "surge" for Rubio and Kasich.

Unheralded, unmentioned by the media, is a major polling event. Donald Trump has reached the 40% mark, his highest point ever, in the Real Clear Politics aggregate poll of polls.

RCP, unlike the Huffington Post Pollster includes a limited number of polling firms with a strong emphasis on pollsters that do live telephone interviews.

There is no getting around this for the media/GOP Establishment-as the graph indicates clearly it is Trump that has surged significantly after Florida/Rubio's exit and there is no sign of a Kasich surge."






The nationwide polls are almost exactly the same. Trump at either 45% 47% or 46% up either 19, 20 points or 16 points.




Arizona, with its 56 winner take all delegates seems more than secure for Trump with a 13 point lead and massive turn out at his rallies.

Th  Utah poll still included Rubio so the final analysis can't be determined but the key for Trump is to be above 15% and for Cruz to be below 50%. If that eventuates Trump will get a proportion of Utah's delegates. 

If the two scenarios play out Trump could end up on Tuesday with north of 750 delegates with the big winner take all northeast states to come


Farewell To Senator Cruz On Tuesday

UPDATE: I am leaving the Utah section below as I have no problem with it. Even the "outlier" poll was way wrong which shows it is almost impossible to poll caucus states with any reliability.

Arizona worked out even better for Donald Trump. He outperformed the aggregate RCP poll (38%) by 9 points 

winning at 47%. His votes at this writing with in 80% in is 116000 votes ahead of Cruz on a miserable 24%.

That was the last caucus state and Cruz ends the evening on 755 delegates with the massive Northeastern states to come.

Trump against 16 candidates got 12,000 more votes than Hillary did against just one;



Some further notes

At 92% Arizona GOP voter turnout 532,000 Arizona Democratic turnout 394,000
Arizona; Cruz 24.4 "All others" 18.6 Kasich 10%
"All others" ran a brilliant campaign to get to 6 points of Cruz
New establishment pick? Rubio wins with strong 3rd place yet again
Rubio 70,500 Kasich 52,444
Arizona Trump vs 16 candidates 246,000 Hillary Vs 1 candidate 232,000
Final March 22nd delegate count Trump 59 (Arizona 58/Virgin Islands 1) Cruz 40 (Utah)Unbound 9 (Am.Samoa) Tot 755
American Samoa Newspaper; GOP meeting "Our (9) delegates will go to the convention unbound" 
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ce...
http://www.samoanews.com/conte... …
Congrat's to Opinion Savvy pollster for getting Trump's Arizona result spot on
@Opinion_Savvy
@realDonaldTrump Outperformed the Arizona poll average by 9 points. Got more votes than Hillary beat Cruz by 114,000

***********************************************



Tuesday March 25th will be the day that Senator Cruz's campaign comes to an end. Yes of course he may very well continue on doggedly until the convention, or until Donald Trump passes the magic 1237 delegate level, but the next round of primary elections are all bad for Cruz. Barring lightning striking politically it does not seem possible for Cruz to stop Trump.

On Tuesday Utah holds its caucus election and in those type of elections, especially where there is a significant Mormon population, Trump does poorly. For what it is worth, an obscure Utah poll has Cruz on 53% and Trump on a meager 11%. The poll seems designed to give Trump the worst possible result-57% of those polled were "strongly conservative" and 54% were 55 years old + including 31% being 65 years old+



This may bode poorly for Cruz as the Utah primary awards all 40 of its delegates to a candidate that gets 50+ of the vote. As Cruz is within the polls supposed margin of error of 4% with its massive bias, then Cruz may well end up under the 50% mark. At that point the delegate distribution becomes proportional and Trump will pick up some delegates.



Arizona is also holding a primary on Tuesday and all its 56 delegates are up for grabs on a winner take all basis. With Trump well ahead (13% in the aggregate of polls) in all polling he would, with a win, have 753 delegates plus whatever he can get from Utah if Cruz is below 50% there.

And that is basically that for Cruz. The next round of primaries, after a bit of a hiatus are Trump friendly to say the least.




In Wisconsin with its 42 delegates Trump was ahead of Cruz in late February 30% to 19%. Given the Michigan and Illinois results for Trump it seems unlikely this is now fertile ground for Cruz. Worse for him Wisconsin is an open primary in which Trump does extremely well with crossover votes from blue collar Dem's.

New York would seem a slaughter for Cruz. The recent poll from Emerson was an astounding Trump 64% Cruz 12%. If this is anywhere near the final result Trump would be on track to receive all 95 delegates at which point Trump would have around 860 delegates with 5 more eastern states to come on April 26th.

These five states, winner take all/most/(1)proportional, have 172 delegates with New Jersey chiming in with 51 "winner take all" on June 7th, the likelihood of that person being Cruz is minimal. That's a total of 223 available for Trump on top of the possible 860 he could very well have after New York. 

There's 375 available further on from a cluster of states including California (172 delegates) which make the math's very clear. Unless something really dramatic happens Utah is Cruz's last hurrah and if he gets below 50% it will be a very muted hurrah indeed.