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Saturday, March 31, 2012

Financial Times: Producers went along with distorted account of Palin pick



The Financial Times has a very good response to the Game Change hatchet job which concludes with this pithy statement; Read the whole item AT THIS LINK
(registration required)

UPDATE; Here is the full text

Clark S. Judge, Managing Director of the White House Writers Group, penned the following letter to the Financial Times:
Sir, In “How Hollywood changed my view of Sarah Palin” (Comment, March 24), Gillian Tett mistakenly accepts the HBO movie Game Change’s account of John McCain’s August 2008 selection of Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running-mate…..
Mr McCain had a problem with strong conservatives and independents. Each group was bound to see his vice-presidential choice as evidence of whether they could trust him. However, any likely candidate who would attract one was all but certain to alienate the other – except Ms Palin.
We all know how she energises conservatives even today. But in mid-2008 she looked as good a bet to excite nonaligned voters.
In becoming Alaska’s governor, Ms Palin had shown independence and courage, challenging an entrenched establishment of her own party. In her brilliant convention acceptance speech, Ms Palin reached out to both conservatives and independents, and for the next half month the ticket led in the polls….
Ms Palin’s strengths and weaknesses have been, in Ms Tett’s phrase, “twisted by a political machine gone mad” as operatives tried to pass blame for their campaign blunders. But whatever one thinks of her, it is a shame that HBO’s producers went along with that distorted account.









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Friday, March 30, 2012

Establishment Crown Romney.Meanwhile Santorum Jumps To 20 Point Lead In Penn Closes To 5 In Wisconsin

The BS/Joins When It Looks Safe/Opportunist/Clueless endorsements flow thick and fast for Romney now that the media feel it is safe to crown him as the nominee. 


In the real world Santorum is closing fast in Wisconsin-from 13 behind to just 5 which is MOE territory, which, as I set out below,if he wins or comes very close can stand the campaign in its head. It will be amusing to see how the media tries to spin a loss by Mr. inevitable if that is what happens and if the amazing Pennsylvania poll hold true Romney will be in big trouble.


At the end of the day to will be the rank and file, not the Rubio's/Bush's et al, who determine who the nominee. If the voters can continue to see through the media/establishment inevitability push, then Santorum could well win, or at least stop Romney from getting the nomination.




At an equivalent time in 2008, McCain led Huckabee by a 63-22 margin in the Gallup tracking poll. Romney currently leads Santorum by a 39-28 margin with Newt at 10%. McCain won Maryland by a 56-29 margin and Wisconsin by a 55-37 margin.
Here is the trend to Santorum which is hidden by the media before the new polls above



                                                    BEFORE         POLLSTER     SPREAD  AFTER   POLLSTER SPREAD
1) NORTH CAROLINA              3/14                 PPP                +4 (MR)      3/27            PPP           TIE
2) WISCONSIN                          3/23              RASMUSSEN +13 (MR)    3/27      MARQUETTE +8 (MR)
You would think that after Santorum's huge victory in LA on Saturday March 24, an enterprising political reporter would seek to see if there was a link between Santorum's national and state poll numbers just prior to his win and the polls released this week. With that in mind here are some comparisons:



The Establishment and Main Stream Media (an hydra) are going all out to push the meme that Mitt Romney is the presumptive nominee-crowned today by this AP headline via Yahoo; "Romney edges into mop-up phase of campaign" AT THIS LINK.

The gist of the article is that, in their view, Gingrich took "an even more obvious step toward the campaign exit" (by scaling down his campaign and staffing). As far as Santorum is concerned "He seemed to acknowledge publicly that his quest for the presidential nomination could end in failure" (because he indicated he woudld consider being VP).

After a few lines about each not quitting quite yet, the rest of the article moves into Obama versus Romney general election mode.

The other theme is that Gingrich should, according to the media, quit and retain whatever shred of dignity he has left . Matt Lewis advises this AT THIS LINK where he calls Gingrich's campaign "delusional" and irrelevant.

Hilariously and without noticing the irony (and a glaring typo) Lewis calls on the memory of, of all people, Winston Churchill in his advice to Newt to quit. Churchill of course, as anyone with a semblance of knowledge of history knows, was cast into the wilderness by his party and made one of the greatest comeback of all time. He of course famously said, when his country was at the lowest ebb "we shall never surrender" yet that is exactly what he,Lewis, is encouraging Gingrich to do.

in reality, Newt could lose his dignity and reputation, by quitting and endorsing Romney after all he has said, correctly, about him. He has advised that he will fight on until, and if, Romney has a majority of delegates. Every delegate Newt gets is one less for Romney to obtain, and one step closer to a brokered convention, where anyone but Romney could prevail.

Santorum is in exactly the same position, actually a stronger one of course, as under the GOP's convention rules he will be, so far, one of only two men to be nominated on the first ballot in Tampa. Newt and anyone else could be nominated subsequently if it gets past the first ballot without a winner.

What the media is totally ignoring, ( as well as the poll showing Romney as "the most unpopular candidate in 28 years" AT THIS LINK) is the fact that Santorum is closing the gap in Wisconsin where, should he pull off a major upset all the rules will have been broken and Romney will be in the fight of his life. 

There is a full analysis of just how much key states, and the national campaign, are shifting to Santorum AT THIS LINK after the Etch A Sketch disaster and the Louisiana landslide.

Rubio and Bush are the latest to be added to the Romney endorsement list. One is a blatant piece of opportunism, and the other is a ho hum establishment crowning. Neither matters to Wisconsin/North Carolina and Pennsylvania where the real battle, away from the media BS, is to be fought. 

If Palin announced  that, could she vote in those three states she would vote for Santorum, then anything could happen. The fate of the nomination could very well be in Sarah's hands if she so chose to take this course of action.



Thursday, March 29, 2012

Hell Freezes Over (Now That They feel Safe Of Course); CNN :"If Only Palin Had Run"




With thanks to Conservatives4Palin
Has something frozen over? A positive editorial piece on Palin from CNN?

You be the judge.

“If Only Sarah Palin had run…” by Timothy Stanley

The Republican presidential primary hasn’t exactly overflowed with talent. In December, it was a roll call of the undesirable Right: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, Huntsman and Bachmann — a list so long and bizarre that Count Dracula could have slipped in on the end and no one would have noticed. Except, as the citizens of Chicago will tell you, the dead always vote Democrat.
…..It didn’t have to be this way. If Sarah Palin had entered the contest, I’d hypothesize two alternative realities. One, she’d have the nomination sewn up by now. Two, she’d be running even in the polls with the president.
….That have proved to be problems for the top three candidates wouldn’t have been problems for Palin. For starters, she has none of Newt Gingrich’s intellectual hubris. There’s no way Palin would have promised to put a mine on the moon or suggest arresting judges who make decisions that are too liberal. Her conservatism is far more domestic and down-to-Earth.
….She’s also more disciplined than Santorum. Although we’ll probably be talking about them into the next century, Palin’s only two serious public gaffes in 2008 happened when she was unable to name a newspaper and was stumped by the Bush doctrine, both slips a product of ignorance. Santorum, on the other hand, is guilty of knowing his own mind all too well, offering unwelcome opinions on everything from the evils of hard-core pornography to the racial politics of the Trayvon Martin tragedy

Read the whole thing AT THIS LINK


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If Newt Was Out Of N.Carolina Santorum Would Lead Romney by 6. That's Why I'm Voting For Rick In N.Y.

 I am a strong Gingrich supporter and, failing a Palin run, would wish Newt to be the nominee. But if wishes were horses I'd be rich as the saying goes and one has to make the best of a situation one finds oneself in. 


If by some chance things change, and either Santorum stumbles or Newt finds a fair wind at his back I would, without hesitation cast my ballot for Newt for New York.


However, my main focus is seeing anyone but Romney as the nominee and if that is Santorum I have absolutely no problem with that. Santorum is a genuine social conservative, which is where my main emphasis lies.


Of course I don't agree with every position he, or Palin or Gingrich has but  in the main all three suit my way of thinking.


I find the PPP polling from North Carolina to be compelling and I would suggest to Republicans there who support Newt that they consider voting for Santorum as if enough do then Rick would won comfortably.


This is vital too in the upcoming Wisconsin primary, where Santorum has closed the gap to a reasonable distance, and if enough Gingrich supporters switch to Santorum to make the race close, or give Rick a win, the whole dynamic of the campaign may change completely.


In the meantime I will take my own advice and vote for Santorum.

Media/Establishment Pile Pressure On Santorum & Gingrich To Crown Romney Ignoring Poll Shift

The Establishment and Main Stream Media (an hydra) are going all out to push the meme that Mitt Romney is the presumptive nominee-crowned today by this AP headline via Yahoo; "Romney edges into mop-up phase of campaign" AT THIS LINK.


The gist of the article is that, in their view, Gingrich took "an even more obvious step toward the campaign exit" (by scaling down his campaign and staffing). As far as Santorum is concerned "He seemed to acknowledge publicly that his quest for the presidential nomination could end in failure" (because he indicated he woudld consider being VP).


After a few lines about each not quitting quite yet, the rest of the article moves into Obama versus Romney general election mode.


The other theme is that Gingrich should, according to the media, quit and retain whatever shred of dignity he has left . Matt Lewis advises this AT THIS LINK where he calls Gingrich's campaign "delusional" and irrelevant.


Hilariously and without noticing the irony (and a glaring typo) Lewis calls on the memory of, of all people, Winston Churchill in his advice to Newt to quit. Churchill of course, as anyone with a semblance of knowledge of history knows, was cast into the wilderness by his party and made one of the greatest comeback of all time. He of course famously said, when his country was at the lowest ebb "we shall never surrender" yet that is exactly what he,Lewis, is encouraging Gingrich to do.


in reality, Newt could lose his dignity and reputation, by quitting and endorsing Romney after all he has said, correctly, about him. He has advised that he will fight on until, and if, Romney has a majority of delegates. Every delegate Newt gets is one less for Romney to obtain, and one step closer to a brokered convention, where anyone but Romney could prevail.


Santorum is in exactly the same position, actually a stronger one of course, as under the GOP's convention rules he will be, so far, one of only two men to be nominated on the first ballot in Tampa. Newt and anyone else could be nominated subsequently if it gets past the first ballot without a winner.


What the media is totally ignoring, ( as well as the poll showing Romney as "the most unpopular candidate in 28 years" AT THIS LINK) is the fact that Santorum is closing the gap in Wisconsin where, should he pull off a major upset all the rules will have been broken and Romney will be in the fight of his life. 


There is a full analysis of just how much key states, and the national campaign, are shifting to Santorum AT THIS LINK after the Etch A Sketch disaster and the Louisiana landslide.


Rubio and Bush are the latest to be added to the Romney endorsement list. One is a blatant piece of opportunism, and the other is a ho hum establishment crowning. Neither matters to Wisconsin/North Carolina and Pennsylvania where the real battle, away from the media BS, is to be fought. 


If Palin announced  that, could she vote in those three states she would vote for Santorum, then anything could happen. The fate of the nomination could very well be in Sarah's hands if she so chose to take this course of action.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Rubio Knows A (Romney)Sinking Ship As Devastating Poll Result;"I am Not A VP Candidate"

UPDATE:Rubio subsequently endorses Romney.That does not alter the sinking November ship one iota it just means that Rubio, who did not endorse Romney when it mattered i.e. during the Florida primary, is a clever politician who is now seen as supporting the establishment candidate, thus placing himself as a 2016 or 2020 contender
*****************************************************************
According to a "The Hill" report 
AT THIS LINK Florida Senator Marco Rubio advised "I am not going to be the vice-presidential nominee."


This comes at the same time an absolutely devastating poll from ABC News which
AT THIS LINK shows that Mitt Romney is the most unpopular significant candidate "in 28 years."


Rubio has been touted as the most obvious and presumably popular VP candidate for Romney given his Hispanic heritage and Florida as a key state for the GOP for November with possible advantages in New Mexico/Nevada and Colorado as well.


It has been noticeable that articles have appeared recently advising that, just perhaps, Rubio would not bring any significant Hispanic support to the ticket so who knows what has been going on behind the scenes as perhaps the Romney camp has been trying to soften the coming blow? 


It is simply not a good look for Romney that the proposed best choice for his running mate doesn't want to know.If Rubio sensed that Romney was an absolute certainly he might have made a different statement today-who knows but surely that is a possibility.


With Romney as the candidate the Republican's would have a difficult challenge overcoming the seeming advantage the Dem's have in the electoral College. in my opinion at this point Governor McDonnell of Virginia-which is the absolute must state the GOP has to win, would be a better bet for VP but polls show that even with him on the ticket President Obama has a strong lead there.


Perhaps the  better solution would be for Romney not to be the nominee and to have someone who is far more popular with the GOP than he is heading the ticket? is there such a person out there (yes there is)

Devastating All Voters Unpopularity Poll For Romney "Worst In 28 Years" Palin Has Better GOP Support



ABC News discusses a new ABC News/Washington Post poll AT THIS LINK which is devastatingly headed "Record numbers see Romney negatively;Obama outpaces him in popularity"


Amongst republicans Romney scores well but still behind the most popular GOP personality Sarah Palin whom PPP Polling  AT THIS LINK found to be far and away the most popular potential GOP candidate with a +48 favorability rating to Romney's+19


the poll result for Romney is appalling, there in no other way to describe this analysis in italics below.


At this point in time Romney appears a certain loser in November. there is still time for another candidate to receive the nomination in Tampa which is why GOP voters might consider voting selectively for whichever candidate has the best chance of defeating Romney in the upcoming primary balloting and  why it is essential that Gingrich stays in



Romney’s seen favorably by 62 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of conservatives overall, including 54 percent of strong conservatives. Obama fares much better on the other side of the political spectrum — 86 percent favorable among Democrats, 75 percent among liberals.

Thirty-four percent hold a favorable opinion of Romney, the lowest for any leading presidential candidate in ABC/Post polls in primary seasons since 1984. His unfavorable score is higher than Obama ever has received; it’s been exceeded by just one other Republican candidate this year, Newt Gingrich, and by only one top candidate in 28 years, Hillary Clinton in 2008.


Palin 2016 Clothing and Pre-Memorabilia On Sale.Grab 'Em Before They Are Hot




The company ZAZZLE which AT THIS LINK knows which way the wind is blowing, and has a great range of Palin 2016 items on sale now. 


Caps/shirts/stickers-some a bit adventurous (Palin-Jindal 2016 for example) but all in the right spirit and right-on. 


I expect that Zazzle will be the go-to on line store post Tampa if Mitt is the nominee.


Here is a sampling but see the rest for yourself-I imagine the Zazzle shop will be a good Christmas site to consider possibly post-Tampa about November 8th.

Media Silent On Post Louisiana/EtchaSketch 5 Point Wisconsin Shift To Santorum

UPDATE: Linked by Stacy McCain Tweet (The Other McCain) AT THIS LINK


                                                    BEFORE         POLLSTER     SPREAD  AFTER   POLLSTER SPREAD
1) NORTH CAROLINA              3/14                 PPP                +4 (MR)      3/27            PPP           TIE
2) WISCONSIN                          3/23              RASMUSSEN +13 (MR)    3/27      MARQUETTE +8 (MR)
You would think that after Santorum's huge victory in LA on Saturday March 24, an enterprising political reporter would seek to see if there was a link between Santorum's national and state poll numbers just prior to his win and the polls released this week. With that in mind here are some comparisons:



The ever watchful Technopeasant, who posts at C4P, makes the salient analysis above. This shows how deeply the MSM is in the tank for Romney (until he gets the nomination-if he does at which point they will descend on him like a ton of bricks as per the McCain example).


I posted previously, as per below, just how much the MSM are ignoring the obvious. If Santorum pulls off a wins in Wisconsin  where Romney had a 13 point lead a few weeks ago the game is changed. 


Wisconsin is  a winner takes all state-one would expect Santorum's supporters to plead with Paul's/Newt's to support Rick in everyone's interest as if Romney loses a WTA state where he had a 13 point lead then all the others have a better shot at it surely. I would call on Palin to say "If I could vote in Wisconsin I would vote for Santorum"


If he wins in North Carolina where there has been a 4 point shift to him then the media is in a pickle. 


 Etch a sketch will have proved to be the utter disaster the media is pretending it is not. If subsequently Santorum pulls off a big win in Pennsylvania then a brokered convention looks likely-we shall see. National poll shift to Santorum analysis is below.
*************************************************************

The MSM trumpeted Romney as "Mr. Inevitable" after his expected IIllinois win. When he got a poll bump, subsequent to all the establishment hoopla, to a double digit lead of 14 points 40-26 it was close up shop time.

Unprecendented" lead after Illinois victory and Bush endorsement" said the Gallup report AT THIS LINK
March 23rd

Then came the disastrous "Etch a sketch' gaffe and Romney's absolute drubbing in the Louisiana primary where nearly 40% of voters said the Etch A Sketch comment had some effect on their voting. As much as the MSM trumpeted Romney's Illinois win they have passed over Santorum's Louisiana landslide as "expected'

They can ignore the Etch A Sketch comment as much as they like in pursuit of their objective of having Romney as their 2012 version of McCain, but the conservative voters, who were edging towards Romney on possibly the electability talking point had their worst fears concerned by the gaffe and voted according-at least in Louisiana  so far.

Now Marist shows Romney dropping back to single digits and, should Santorum pull out a surprise win in Wisconsin, or at least come very close, then all bets are off and the pundits will have to allow for a changed scene post-Etch A Sketch.


From Marist  Polling AT THIS LINK which shows a 5 point move to Santorum since Etch a Sketch which may reflect conservatives who were wavering now returning.

"The poll found Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, supported by 39 percent, former Sen. Santorum of Pennsylvania by 31 percent, former House Speaker Gingrich by 13 percent and Rep Paul of Texas by 13 percent."









Monday, March 26, 2012

Did Palin Announce Candidacy Tonight;"That helps the GOP candidates as WE are trying to explain there is a better way"

Here is a quote from Sarah Palin's interview with Greta Van Susteren tonight. Is this the universal "we" or a Freudian slip-or has the cat been inadvertently let out of the bag "for those with ears to hear"?


Time will tell. (my emphasis on "we")

At 2;24 in the video clip below;

"I think that helps the GOP candidates as WE are trying to explain that there is a better way to address health-care issues in America versus what obamacare has done."



Palin States the Obvious Romney At Disadvantage Over ObamaCare. If Supreme Court Nixes It The How Fares Mitt?

In answer to Greta's question as to what happens if the court rules Obamacare unconstitutional Palin said the MSM will try and protect Obama by dismissing and diverting  from the issue.


"A constitution scholar who tried to cram an unconstitutional act down our throats" Ouch!


As for Romneycare


"He will have his hands full as he's dubbed the father of Obamacare."


Romney Back To Single Digit Lead Over Santorum-Etch A Sketch Still Biting Hard?

The MSM trumpeted Romney as "Mr. Iinevitable" after his expected IIllinois win. When he got a poll bump, subsequent to all the establishment hoopla, to a double digit lead of 14 points 40-26 it was close up shop time.

Unprecendented" lead after Illinois victory and Bush endorsement" said the Gallup report AT THIS LINK
March 23rd

Then came the disastrous "Etch a sketch' gaffe and Romney's absolute drubbing in the Louisiana primary where nearly 40% of voters said the Etch A Sketch comment had some effect on their voting. As much as the MSM trumpeted Romney's Illinois win they have passed over Santorum's Louisiana landslide as "expected'

They can ignore the Etch A Sketch comment as much as they like in pursuit of their objective of having Romney as their 2012 version of McCain, but the conservative voters, who were edging towards Romney on possibly the electability talking point had their worst fears concerned by the gaffe and voted according-at least in Louisiana  so far.

Now Marist shows Romney dropping back to single digits and, should Santorum pull out a surprise win in Wisconsin, or at least come very close, then all bets are off and the pundits will have to allow for a changed scene post-Etch A Sketch.


From Marist  Polling AT THIS LINK which shows a 5 point move to Santorum since Etch a Sketch which may reflect conservatives who were wavering now returning.

"The poll found Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, supported by 39 percent, former Sen. Santorum of Pennsylvania by 31 percent, former House Speaker Gingrich by 13 percent and Rep Paul of Texas by 13 percent."

Inevitable Romney/Santorum Ticket; UPDATE; Santorum Agrees to the Possibility (Actually Probability)

In my previous post, and once again this blog leads the way and shines a light for the so called professional journalists/prognosticators to see in the fog that surrounds them, I advised that there is an air of inevitability about a coming Romney/Santorum ticket. In an interview with David Brody of "The Brody File" Santorum confirms my analysis as per the transcript below. You can read the whole Brody article and see the confirming video clip AT THIS LINK

The Golden Rule of politics is nothing is impossible and that things said in the primary campaign count for nothing once tickets are being created. if Bush's "voodoo economics' attack on Reagan could be quietly passed over by both men then Etch a sketch and whatever else comes from either side between now and Tampa is just malarkey.

David Brody: If he for some reason asks you to be the vice presidential candidate on his ticket? I know, after is all said and done. Would you even consider it?



Rick Santorum: Of course. I mean, look. I would do in this race as I always say, this is the most important race in our country's history. I'm going to do everything I can. I'm doing everything I can. I'm out there. In the last 10 months, I've had five days off. Two for Thanksgiving, and three for Christmas.


I've been working every single day. My wife and my kids, we're just busting our tail, because we know their future and all of our children's future is at stake in this election. And I don't want to be the guy who has to sit with my granddaughter, 20 years from now, and tell stories about an America where people once were free. I don’t want to have that conversation.


Brody: So, you're keeping your options open.
Santorum: I'll do whatever is necessary to help our country.

ORIGINAL POST;

As the possibility of a brokered convention in Florida looms larger so the talk of a new candidate being placed before the convention. Palin, Daniels, Ryan, Christie and Bush all having their supporters.

And yes, a plausible case can be made for such an occurrence. Certainly there have been GOP conventions which were not settled when the opening bell rang e.g. 1952 and 1976 and the 1948 convention went to three ballots before settling on Thomas E. Dewey so there is precedence.

But for someone who is not currently a candidate to reach the point of being nominated the barrier that is simply one of the current candidates asking his delegates to switch to another candidate would have to be surmounted. That possibility is, frankly, far more likely than a newcomer to the race emerging at Tampa.


If things progress as they seem likely to now, that is with Romney having a lead in delegate support with Santorum having a substantial number of delegates.Then with with Gingrich's and Paul's delegates there could be enough to prevent Romney from gaining the nomination. At that point a a deal could very much be in the offing.


For Santorum to release his delegates to Romney in exchange for the vice-presidential spot would give Romney a balanced ticket. It would give Santorum national prominence which would mean a remarkable rise for him.


Santorum would go from being an ex-senator who suffered a massive defeat when running for re-election, to being possibly vice-president and certainly a "next in line" candidate for the presidential nomination after 4-8 years of a Romney presidency. If Romney lost, Santorum would have a clear shot at the nomination in 2016.


The ticket would be balanced with a Mormon, and an Italian descent Catholic VP candidate, from a traditional religion with a massive following. Questions over Romney's social conservative credentials, and pro-life attitude could be put aside by having Santorum's impeccable credentials in both those respects.


The ticket would be headed by a "moderate to appeal to Independents and a social conservative to appeal to the Tea Party supporters. It would have a businessman, a member of the Beltway Republican insider faction balanced by a VP with the traditional American "family of immigrants who made good from a working class background."


There is of course absolutely no problem with fixing the antagonisms and mutual attacks going on now-that is all part and parcel of campaigning and everyone knows it. Reagan and Bush had no problem becoming a team, as did JFK and LBJ for the Dem's. The call for 'reconcilliation for party unity' would soon end any problems with the ensuing love fest.

There are notions that a de facto Romney and Ron Paul combination can be effected by having the younger Paul (who would be "honored" to be considered") as the VP. That would work too for balance and bring Paul's dedicated followers on board.

Much might depend on how many delegates Paul brings to Tampa, If , as seems likely, Santorum has many more, then the Romney/Santorum pairing seems more likely. Perhaps the threat of Ron Paul bolting and running as a third party candidate, which would guarantee a Republican loss, might still be enough to tilt the VP nod to Rand Paul.

That might be an harder pill for the convention to swallow and the pesky problem of having enough delegates from the combination would still be there. No, Romney/Santorum seems more likely.

The one possible fly in the ointment is Newt Gingrich. Whilst a Romney/Gingrich pairing is possible, and brings a good north/south, Mormon/ex-Protestant now Catholic pro-life conservative in tandem, the reconciliation process might be challenging.

Gingrich genuinely doesn't seem to like Romney and, whilst that is not an impenetrable impediment, it might prove a bridge to far. Not only for Newt, but for his delegates and the party

If a Romney/Santorum pairing still doesn't have enough delegates then Newt, who would have no chance of getting the nomination, might do something which could change everything.

After the first ballot Gingrich could ask his delegates to switch to a then introduced Palin in return for being her VP. Palin has all but endorsed Newt, was instrumental in his South Carolina, win and of course her husband Todd has openly endorsed him.

Everything rides on the delegate balance, and especially Newt picking up substantial support in the southern primaries whilst Santorum splits the northern delegations with Romney.

Whether any combination which included Mitt Romney and a Paul, or Santorum would motivate conservatives to vote for the team is open to debate.

Whether it would do better than a Palin/Gingrich team is also open to debate but for me the question is settled-no Gingrich or Palin then no vote.

Certainly George Will doesn't think much of either Romney or Santorum's chances against Obama
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The Soul Of Charity In An Image



I recently was honored, as Ambassador to the Ethnic Communities for The Leprosy Mission, to receive an invitation to visit the villages for the leprosy affected by HANDA the Chinese rehabilitation charity run by leprosy affected individuals and professionals. 


I recounted.with photographs, some of the highlights of my visit AT THIS LINK.


Needless to say I was deeply touched by the stories from the inhabitants, some who had been isolated for over 50 years. I was also deeply impressed by the prosthesis makers and staff of HANDA who give so much of their time and skill to caring for these unfortunate people.


I was just sent a Photo (with a colleague at left in the photo) of my visit by a Chinese colleague which picture epitomises, to me, the very heart and soul of charity. 


Whatever trials and tribulations one may have face or will face in ones life it would be a challenge in many cases to find personal difficulties which are harder than this gentleman has faced. Yet he was kindly and friendly, and a gentleman throughout our stay which lifted all our spirits.


The Leprosy Mission has a  cure leprosy campaign running. They have worked out what it costs, on average to cure/care/defeat stigma/rehabilitate physically and 
mentally/  educate patients and their community. 


This runs to about US$400 p.a. If you would wish to assist,with any amount, with this great work please contribute via the contribution buttons on the right of this page and indicate what your contribution is for-it will be receipted and further updates will be sent if you wish.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Louisiana Primary Result Map By County This Is What A Hiding Looks Like

 As opposed to the rather wide of the mark predictions from The Washington Post which advised (hilariously AT THIS LINK) that Louisiana would be Romney's most fertile hunting ground in the South, the result was totally lopsided if the county map is consulted.


Yes, the color purple can be magnificent. The votes per county,which are wonderful reading too, are AT THIS  LINK





Saturday, March 24, 2012

39% Of Louisiana Voters Say Etch A Sketch Was A Factor In Their Vote.Bad News For Romney

 
As I set out in some explanatory detail below I believed there was solid evidence that the Etch A Sketch disaster for Romney has legs and he is effectively damaged goods at this point. CNN's exit polling now confirms the extent of the damage done to Romney AT THIS LINK. 39% said it was a factor in their vote and for Santorum's supporters 53% said it was.

 For it to be "important" for 20% is a massive consideration as such a proportion, if they were influenced negatively against Romney could cause him to lose further ballots and in a close election against president Obama, if Romney is the nominee any sort of desertion from him caused by this factor would be disastrous to his efforts.








As I suggested in the previous article represented below the Romney Etch a Sketch disaster will have lasting significance. Conservatives who were wavering in their hesitancy towards Romney, especially after his substantial Illinois victory and  the "electability" argument" would have been disgusted with the apparent hypocrisy on show with the "shake and start over" comment.


The immediate results weren't apparent in Gallup tracking because that takes a while to reflect opinion changes but the, very effective PPP Polling firm picked up the fact that late deciders in Louisiana were breaking substantially to Santorum.


I advised, as per below that I thought that was the first fruits, especially in this conservative state, of the Etch A sketch disaster for Romney. If this is in fact the case and is repeated in ensuing primary voting then Romney  is damaged goods for the general election, should he get the nomination and a brokered convention looks very likely-which should bring a smile to Palin fans.


Voting in Louisiana has Santorum with a massive lead AT THIS LINK 49% to 27% (beating PPP's Poll by 7%) and the combined anyone but Romney vote is a massive 71% with perhaps the more important Santorum/Gingrich vote at 65%-they sure don't want Mr. Etch a Sketch down in La.
**************************************************************************



PPP Polling, which has had a remarkable run of prediction success in recent GOP primary polling just reports AT THIS LINK IN FULL DETAIL)


"Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who've decided who to vote for in the last few days he's at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll" 


Santorum's overall lead is currently 42% to 28%. A number of factors may be contributing to the late Santorum surge, one being a decline in support for Newt Gingrich with his voters moving to some degree to Santorum. But that begs the questions as to why that is happening, if it indeed is.


It might not be because voters are worried that Romney might win as Santorum has always had a safe enough lead in Louisiana, especially with the states conservative and substantial Catholic voters. 


One could, perhaps safely, conjecture that the Romney is an Etch a Sketch candidate gaffe by his campaign manager has convinced wavering conservatives who were at the point of being seduced by the media's/Romney's campaign "inevitability/electability argument, that Romney is as they always suspected-i.e. no conservative.


Thus, as I have written previously, the Gaffe marks one of the two most important moments of the campaign. It appears that the voters of Louisiana agree.


This race may well have some time to run and the Etch A Sketch disaster for the Romney team is not going away quickly, no matter how inconsequential Ann Althouse's wishful and dismissive thinking considers it to be.


.










As I suggested in the previous article represented below the Romney Etch a Sketch disaster will have lasting significance. Conservatives who were wavering in their hesitancy towards Romney, especially after his substantial Illinois victory and  the "electability" argument" would have been disgusted with the apparent hypocrisy on show with the "shake and start over" comment.


The immediate results weren't apparent in Gallup tracking because that takes a while to reflect opinion changes but the, very effective PPP Polling firm picked up the fact that late deciders in Louisiana were breaking substantially to Santorum.


I advised, as per below that I thought that was the first fruits, especially in this conservative state, of the Etch A sketch disaster for Romney. If this is in fact the case and is repeated in ensuing primary voting then Romney  is damaged goods for the general election, should he get the nomination and a brokered convention looks very likely-which should bring a smile to Palin fans.


Voting in Louisiana has Santorum with a massive lead AT THIS LINK 49% to 27% (beating PPP's Poll by 7%) and the combined anyone but Romney vote is a massive 71% with perhaps the more important Santorum/Gingrich vote at 65%-they sure don't want Mr. Etch a Sketch down in La.
**************************************************************************



PPP Polling, which has had a remarkable run of prediction success in recent GOP primary polling just reports AT THIS LINK IN FULL DETAIL)


"Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who've decided who to vote for in the last few days he's at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll" 


Santorum's overall lead is currently 42% to 28%. A number of factors may be contributing to the late Santorum surge, one being a decline in support for Newt Gingrich with his voters moving to some degree to Santorum. But that begs the questions as to why that is happening, if it indeed is.


It might not be because voters are worried that Romney might win as Santorum has always had a safe enough lead in Louisiana, especially with the states conservative and substantial Catholic voters. 


One could, perhaps safely, conjecture that the Romney is an Etch a Sketch candidate gaffe by his campaign manager has convinced wavering conservatives who were at the point of being seduced by the media's/Romney's campaign "inevitability/electability argument, that Romney is as they always suspected-i.e. no conservative.


Thus, as I have written previously, the Gaffe marks one of the two most important moments of the campaign. It appears that the voters of Louisiana agree.


This race may well have some time to run and the Etch A Sketch disaster for the Romney team is not going away quickly, no matter how inconsequential Ann Althouse's wishful and dismissive thinking considers it to be.

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