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Friday, November 2, 2012

Renowned Economic Analyst (Walayat) Gives Illustrated Reasons For Forthcoming Obama Landslide


The widely read ( at "The Market Oracle") and controversial economic commentator Nadeem Walayat headlines his predictions for the American presidential election in typically forthright fashion-with no equivocation or Etch-a Sketch flip flopping.


"Who Will Win the U.S. Presidential Election, Forecast 2012"

And here is his prediction-note too his prediction for the US unemployment rate at 7.9% which is exactly bang on.

"So whilst all eyes are on misleading highly erroneous opinion polls that give the illusion of a close race, and on which way Ohio goes, as things stand my forecast remains for President Obama to be re-elected on November 6th with the probability favouring more than 300 electoral votes i.e. there has been no net change since the release of September jobs report as the trend continues to build towards Obama increasing the real events based gap between himself and Mitt Romney by election day, enough to push through the 300 barrier, with or without Ohio and even a bad October Jobs report of a rate above 8% (I expect 7.9%), will not have enough time behind it to create enough momentum to make much impact at such a late stage."

The main reason why Walayat predicts President Obama will be re-elected with what is a landslide majority at +300 electoral College votes is exactly the same reason as I predict AT THIS LINK-Romney's 47% speech and what killed his chances irrevocably, his poor debate performance subsequent to his major debate win in the Denver debate.

Here is Walayat again: with that point-you can read the whole post AT THIS LINK:


"The bottom line is that Romney failed to re-ignite the momentum that built up following he first debate that was halted by the 6th October Unemployment report, instead his performance during subsequent debates has been weaker than Obama's and therefore the election really was lost by Mitt Romney during mid September following the 47% video, which crippled his chance of ever taking the lead as I correctly suggested at the time (19 Sep 2012 - The Day Mitt Romney Lost the U.S. Presidential Election 2012, Youtube Fund Raising Video)"


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