Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Media Silent On Post Louisiana/EtchaSketch 5 Point Wisconsin Shift To Santorum

UPDATE: Linked by Stacy McCain Tweet (The Other McCain) AT THIS LINK


                                                    BEFORE         POLLSTER     SPREAD  AFTER   POLLSTER SPREAD
1) NORTH CAROLINA              3/14                 PPP                +4 (MR)      3/27            PPP           TIE
2) WISCONSIN                          3/23              RASMUSSEN +13 (MR)    3/27      MARQUETTE +8 (MR)
You would think that after Santorum's huge victory in LA on Saturday March 24, an enterprising political reporter would seek to see if there was a link between Santorum's national and state poll numbers just prior to his win and the polls released this week. With that in mind here are some comparisons:



The ever watchful Technopeasant, who posts at C4P, makes the salient analysis above. This shows how deeply the MSM is in the tank for Romney (until he gets the nomination-if he does at which point they will descend on him like a ton of bricks as per the McCain example).


I posted previously, as per below, just how much the MSM are ignoring the obvious. If Santorum pulls off a wins in Wisconsin  where Romney had a 13 point lead a few weeks ago the game is changed. 


Wisconsin is  a winner takes all state-one would expect Santorum's supporters to plead with Paul's/Newt's to support Rick in everyone's interest as if Romney loses a WTA state where he had a 13 point lead then all the others have a better shot at it surely. I would call on Palin to say "If I could vote in Wisconsin I would vote for Santorum"


If he wins in North Carolina where there has been a 4 point shift to him then the media is in a pickle. 


 Etch a sketch will have proved to be the utter disaster the media is pretending it is not. If subsequently Santorum pulls off a big win in Pennsylvania then a brokered convention looks likely-we shall see. National poll shift to Santorum analysis is below.
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The MSM trumpeted Romney as "Mr. Inevitable" after his expected IIllinois win. When he got a poll bump, subsequent to all the establishment hoopla, to a double digit lead of 14 points 40-26 it was close up shop time.

Unprecendented" lead after Illinois victory and Bush endorsement" said the Gallup report AT THIS LINK
March 23rd

Then came the disastrous "Etch a sketch' gaffe and Romney's absolute drubbing in the Louisiana primary where nearly 40% of voters said the Etch A Sketch comment had some effect on their voting. As much as the MSM trumpeted Romney's Illinois win they have passed over Santorum's Louisiana landslide as "expected'

They can ignore the Etch A Sketch comment as much as they like in pursuit of their objective of having Romney as their 2012 version of McCain, but the conservative voters, who were edging towards Romney on possibly the electability talking point had their worst fears concerned by the gaffe and voted according-at least in Louisiana  so far.

Now Marist shows Romney dropping back to single digits and, should Santorum pull out a surprise win in Wisconsin, or at least come very close, then all bets are off and the pundits will have to allow for a changed scene post-Etch A Sketch.


From Marist  Polling AT THIS LINK which shows a 5 point move to Santorum since Etch a Sketch which may reflect conservatives who were wavering now returning.

"The poll found Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, supported by 39 percent, former Sen. Santorum of Pennsylvania by 31 percent, former House Speaker Gingrich by 13 percent and Rep Paul of Texas by 13 percent."









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