Friday, April 29, 2016

A List Of Democrats Who Vow To Never Back Hillary

The Hill ran "Republicans who vow to never back Trump" so I thought, in the interest of balance I'd compile "A list of Democrats who vow to never back Hillary" This is what I could find but, just perhaps, there are some more.

Some Sanders supporters say it’s ‘Bernie or Bust’ and they will never vote for Hillary Clinton"

Russ Belville is an Internet radio host and marijuana legalization advocate based in Portland, Ore. In late February, he wrote a column for the Huffington Post laying out the bones of the “Bernie or Bust” position. In a conversation with Yahoo News earlier this month, Belville said Clinton couldn’t get his vote even by joining forces with Sanders.
“If Bernie Sanders were to accept a vice presidential bid from Hillary Clinton, it would so disillusion me to the integrity of Bernie Sanders that I don’t know what I would do. I can’t even conceive of him accepting that offer,” Belville said.
James Scolari, a photographer in Los Angeles, echoed that view.
“I would never vote for Hillary Clinton, and, God, I hope Sanders wouldn’t serve as her running mate,” Scolari said. “I don’t believe he would.
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FACEBOOK SITE
52,688 "Likes"

I will NOT vote for Hillary in 2016
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The Spectator

I will never vote for Hillary Clinton


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Huffington Post

33 Percent of Bernie Sanders Supporters Will Not Vote for Hillary Clinton. Here’s Why

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Robert Scheer : Why I Will Never Support Hillary Clinton for President
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Mrs. Sanders suggests Bernie’s supporters won’t vote for Hillary

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“Bernie or Bust” – Over 50,000 Sanders Supporters Pledge to Never Vote for Hillary

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I’M A BLACK WOMAN, HERE’S WHY I JUST CAN’T SUPPORT HILLARY CLINTON

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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Tuesday's FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver & Harry Enten Fail Yet Again

Nate Silver's sad and failing political site fivethirtyeight .com (even the comment section says he is living in denial" over Trump) continues on its erratic predictive path. It's record is, frankly terrible. 

Silver, who got his start at the far left hate site "Daily Kos" has been obsessed with Trump which led him to predict "Trump has a 2% chance of getting the nomination" and then a major article "Trump's 6 stages of Doom."

Silver's sidekick "Forecaster" Harry Enten previewed Tuesday's GOP primary ( making sure to ascribe the predictions to Silver so he doesn't have too much egg on his face, but included his own "predictions") and came up with these;

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Connecticut

  • Delegates at stake28 (15 by congressional district, 13 statewide)
  • Nate Silver’s “deterministic” Trump projection23 delegates (this is, as Nate wrote, “the single most likely” number of delegates Trump will win in the state, in Nate’s view.)
"Still, given the obstacles between Trump and a clean sweep of Connecticut’s delegates, it’s still not clear where the state fits in Trump’s fight to collect 1,237 — whether Connecticut will get him closer to that goal or set him further off track."
Even with a 54% poll result Enten and Silver failed miserably Trump won all 28 delegates

Delaware

  • Delegates at stake16
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 16 delegates
  • Allocation: winner-take-all
Since Trump had a 37 point poll lead even Silver couldn't get this one wrong.

Maryland

  • Delegates at stake38 (24 by congressional district, 14 statewide)
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 29 delegates
  • Allocation: winner-take-all on the district and statewide level
 My own guess is that he’ll probably lose one or two districts — most likely the 2nd, 3rd, 5th or the 7th — but even in that scenario he’d exceed Nate’s deterministic delegate projection.
Trump was at 53% in the Maryland poll and for Silver/Enten-fail again Trump won all 38 delegates

Pennsylvania

  • Delegates at stake71 (54 by congressional district, 17 statewide)
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 17 delegates (statewide only)
Every poll had Trump by a landslide  here. No awards for getting the obvious right
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Rhode Island

  • Delegates at stake19 (6 by congressional district, 13 statewide)
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 9 delegates
  • Allocation: proportional by congressional district and statewide
If you’re looking for some sort of excitement, there’s some question as to whether Cruz can reach the 10 percent threshold required to qualify for any delegates. But he probably will 
And...wrong again Trump won 11

Wrong Again! Nate Silver's "FiveThirtyEight" 11 Of Last 11 Trump Delegate Predictions Fail

Who is Nate Silver?

Hillaryis44 summed up Silver's history concisely 
Speaking of liars and cowards, Nate Silver. Silver is the “numbers guru” who used to write for the DailyKooks (Mad Markos Moulitsas 'Daily Kos') website and trash us. Silver, in his subsequent books and writings never disclosed he got campaign data from Obama in 2008. Silver lied his way to a top column at the New York Times and now has his own website. For months Silver gave Trump single digit (2%) chances to get the nomination

Since Silver and his mate (perhaps literally) "Forecaster" Harry Enten are seen as near infallible gurus of prognostication by the leftist media it is of value to see exactly how they are doing and whether their 'reputation' is a grossly;y inflated one based on pure luck, insider information and blind chance.

Here's Silver, Enten and their 'team of experts"

"Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?"

In addition to Nate Silver’s and my estimates, we tried to include a diverse set of opinions from across the political spectrum. We also focused on analysts who have been following the delegate race closely and know the intricacies of the GOP’s delegate rules. Our panel included these people:
  • Adam Geller: founder and CEO of National Research Inc. and the lead pollster for Chris Christie’s presidential campaign
  • Daniel Nichanian: contributing editor to Daily Kos Elections and PhD candidate in political science at the University of Chicago.
  • Henry Olsen: senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center
  • Margie Omero: managing director at Purple Insights
  • Patrick Ruffini: co-founder and partner at Echelon Insights and chairman and founder of Engage
  • David Wasserman: House editor at the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight contributor

From Utah to New York-6 prognostications in a row, they achieved a 100% failure record-not one single forecast was correct, some wildly out like New York at 71 delegates for Trump who achieved a landslide of 60% of the vote and 90 delegates.



And then the next 5 guesses (for that is all they are of course) completely wrong!
So they are at least consistent eleven out of eleven  wrong. Getting Delaware and Pennsylvania wrong takes some doing-but they managed it.

There are ten more to go, can they make it a grand total of 21 wrong guesses? I don't do goat entrails or other omen work, but if I did I would be confident my success rate would be better than Silver and his "experts". 

Oh, and Silver's meme is utterly exploded "Trump has won a majority of the vote only in his home state of New York.5

Trumps Numbers; Outperformed Polls Across 5 States,15 Points Nationwide

The rout of Cruz and Kasich on Tuesday is remarkable. It continued his momentum from New York and the results are striking


Bound delegates won from last 6 states from a pool of 213 available;
Cruz 3 Kasich 10 Trump 200

Trump now has 857 bound delegates and 42 "unbound" bound from Pennsylvania and is well on the way to the nomination. He has in reality 1084
delegates.

Trump outperformed the Real Clear Politics "Poll of Polls" cumulative averages across the five states (as he did in New York last week


PENNSYLVANIA RCP AVERAGE 48.3% ACTUAL 56.7% +8.4


DELAWARE RCP 55.0% ACTUAL 60.8% +5.8


MARYLAND RCP 47.7% ACTUAL 54.4% +6.7


RHODE ISLAND RCP 52.3% ACTUAL 63.8% +11.5


CONNECTICUT RCP 53.7% ACTUAL 57.7% +4.0


RCP 5 STATE AVERAGE 52.6% ACTUAL 58% +5.4


NATIONWIDE RCP 43% AVE. 5 STATES 58% +15

Trumps 110 delegate haul (+42 unbound exceeded all estimates.




Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Donald Trump Has In Reality 1084 Delegates Now.Only Needs 153 More


Although New Jersey is not voting until June 7th, if anything is certain in politics it is that its 51 delegate winner take all haul will go to Trump. Thus after Tuesday in reality his delegate total is 957+51=1008.

Frankly the near certainty of West Virginia's 34 delegates can be added to that so at 1042 it is perfectly clear Trump will be the nominee barring some catastrophe before California votes.

Including Pennsylvania's bound and the now pledged*, New Jersey and West Virginia in Tuesdays total Trump needs 153 bound delegates, to be assured of the nomination on the first ballot;


* "According to Nate Cohn, New York Times Trump takes 42 of 54 PA unbound delegates." 

"By my count, the Trump slate leads in 31 of 54 unpledged delegate slots. Another 11 delegates are pledged to the winner of their district.
also one of the 3 uncommitted PA delegates who leads said he was "leaning" Trump on MSNBC"


There is, realistically, a pool (not including West Virginia and New Jersey) of 325 delegates from the remaining primary states of Indiana 57, Oregon 28, Washington 44, New Mexico 24 and of course California 172. 

These are all, to some degree proportional either across the entire state or they are winner take all states plus winner of congressional districts. Thus Trump is guaranteed of a level of delegates from all of them.

I have not included Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota as they would, at this point, most likely be solid for Cruz. 

Nobody knows how the six "Trump states" will deliver their delegate numbers for him but, as per my analysis below based on current polling in Indiana and California and giving Trump a 50/50 split in Oregon/Washington/New Mexico, it seems reasonable to conclude Trump will pass the 1237 mark comfortably.

And that's without adding in whatever will be for him from the other 20 or so unbound delegates particularly from Guam/Virgin Islands/American Samoa.

At this point California alone would give Trump the nomination










Monday, April 25, 2016

LANDSLIDE! Trump Above 50% In Pennsylvania/Connecticut/Maryland/Rhode Island

At Drudge a statistical tie Clinton 46% Trump 43%
(GWU Poll)



GOP national poll:

USA Today/Suffolk:
Trump: 45.21%
Cruz: 29.11%
Kasich: 16.78%
Other: 1.03
Und: 7.88


The decline for Cruz and Kasich is clear across the "Poll of Polls" aggregate at RCP



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4/20--4/24
In the past 9 GOP national polls since April 14, Trump has NOT fallen below 44%.


Not just a lead across these three sates-an outright slaughter. The message to the GOP establishment is straightforward and any attempt to steal the nomination in Cleveland will be a disaster.

For Pennsylvania's 54 unbound delegates to vote for Kasich or Cruz would be a travesty and clear breach with the people's message and wish.



53% in Maryland up 29 points






In Connecticut a massive lead



In Rhode Island-approaching the 2/3 mark where the bulk of proportionally allocated delegates woudl go to Trump




The "Trump can't get to 50% "meme will die Tuesday

102 and 10%:The Numbers Trump Needs Today For Nomination On Track

Donald Trump's delegate total stands to date at *847 as shown at the respected Green Papers analytic site. On Tuesday the 26th there are 118 pledged delegates available, and a further  54 "unpledged" from Pennsylvania which are unassigned for this exercise although commonsense shows that a substantial number will be for Trump.

Optics count in politics as they aid momentum, which Trump certainly has following on from his massive win in New York. Thus a 100+ delegate haul Tuesday, with a win in all  five states on offer, would add to Trumps "inevitability" effect. To make this even more apparent, a 102 delegate haul  (104 would be optimal as some media give Trump **845 delegates)  would give Trump a total of 949

Although New Jersey is not voting until June 7th, if anything is certain in politics it is that its 51 delegate winner take all haul will go to Trump. The optics thus after Tuesday in reality are 949+51=1000.

Frankly the near certainty of West Virginia's 34 delegates can be added to that so at 1034 it is perfectly clear Trump will be the nominee barring some catastrophe before California votes.

Including New Jersey and West Virginia in Tuesdays total Trump needs 237 bound delegates (not including the number he will certainly get from Pennsylvania) to be assured of the nomination on the first ballot. There is, realistically, a pool of 359
delegates from the remaining primary states of Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico and of course California. 

These are all, to some degree proportional either across the entire state or winner take all state plus winner of congressional districts thus Trump is guaranteed of a level of delegates from all of them.

I have not included Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota as they would, at this point, most likely be solid for Cruz. Nobody knows how the six "Trump states" will deliver their delegate numbers for him but, as per my analysis below based on current polling in Indiana and California and giving Trump a 50/50 split in Oregon/Washington/New Mexico it seems reasonable to conclude Trump will pass the 1237 mark comfortably.

And that's without adding in Pennsylvania's unbound delegates plus whatever will be for him from the other unbound delegates particularly from Guam/Virgin Islands/American Samoa.


The other aspect of note on Tuesday is 
Rhode Island's unusual proportional system. If all three candidates receive more than 10% of the vote they will get one delegate each from the three allocated across the two congressional districts unless a candidate gets 67% of the vote in a CD at which point he will get 2 delegates there. 

The states winner also gets a proportional delegate assign based on his total share of the overall vote. Thus although Trump is leading in the polls there he may only get, at most 9 delegates.

Apart from the unlikely event of Trump getting 67% if Cruz goes below 10% statewide he will get no delegates and Trump would possibly get up to 12 or so. Thus Trump supporters should keep an eye on Cruz's tally as at this stage every delegate counts.



WD="Withdrawn" i.e. delegates bound to Rubio, Carson, Huckabee, Fiorina, Paul

UA="Unavailable' i.e. unbound delegates like those from Guam and a smattering of other states and areas. For my analysis I have assigned 35 of Pennsylvania's to Trump plus 2 form "Unbound" to bring his current total to 847 as per the Green Papers analysis

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Friday, April 22, 2016

UPDATE:Fox Trump +27 California "Trump's Massive Poll Day; Leads Vital Indiana by 8,Cruz Collapses Nationwide

If this is anywhere near to the final result in California it is all over now for Cruz



And they support the regional analysis







Monster drop for Cruz in Reuters five day tracking poll after the New York primary
04/18 Trump 45.4 Cruz 34.3 Trump +11.1 04/22 Trump 49.3 Cruz 28.2 Trump +21.1




In the winner takes all vital state of Indiana Donald Trump has taken a six point lead in POS Poll 8 points in Fox If his momentum builds and he wins most of the states delegates he would, almost certainly, be on the way to an assured +1237 delegate haul and the nomination. Indiana 30 delegates for winning the state +27 district delegates (3x9) Total 57 delegates available




First Delaware GOP Poll Released: Trump 55, Kasich 18, Lyin’ Ted at 15


The year's very first Delaware poll! http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/delaware-polling/ 

Trump 55, Kasich 18, Cruz 15 [that's 16 delegates WTA]
Clinton 45, Sanders 38