Wednesday, October 7, 2015

UPDATED:Trump's Amazing Poll Run Continues;Near 30% In "Poll Of Polls & Major State Poll Results

The pundits despair continues

In The Huffington Post aggregate "Poll of Polls Trump is almost at his highest point ever and near 30% aggregate. If the idiotic IBD poll was removed which had him at 17% he would be even further ahead. As it now stands Trump has a 15 point lead.
The just released Fairleigh Dickinson poll is a bummer for pundits as it is not an "on-line" poll. It has Trump 9 points above the media's touted IBD poll which had him in second palce. Trump at 26% is not only inthe lead but  has as much support as Bush/Rubio/Fiorina/Christie/Kasich COMBINED!

In  new state polls Trump has more support than Bush and Rubio combined in their own state of Florida which has over 90 delegates in a winner takes all primary. The situation is the same in the "rust belt" state of Ohio and Pennsylvania 

And Pennsylvania
In a new poll from California Trump leads and is ahead of local Fiorina.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Donald Trump's Amazing Poll Day 10/06/15 Three Polls 27% To 32.8%

Huffington Post aggregate tracker

After the ludicrous IBD poll which had Trump in second to Carson at only 17% and of course the NBC poll so beloved of Fox news etc sanity has reasserted itself.

Despite the media's best/worst efforts to pump up Fiorina she is in a strong trend decline and Carson has, at least leveled out. Next up for a clearly desperate Jeb GOP Establishment and MSM is Marco Rubio who will get a polling bump.When he's done Kasich  and even Christie will step into the GOPe batters circle.

In the meantime Trump has more poll support in the RCP averages than Bush/Rubio/Christie COMBINED. You can see the Trump trend line starting to tick up slightly which would be more marked of course if the ludicrous IBD poll was taken out

Here are the latest polls

  Iowa Trump Vs Clinton:Leads by 7 points, a ten point turn around

Morning Consult Trump 31% nationwide

PPP Polling (Dem firm)

Trump 27%

Trump Holding Steady Nationally

PPP's newest national Republican poll actually finds the top of the field in a pretty similar place to where it was in late August. Donald Trump leads the field with 27%, similar to the 29% he had on our last survey. Ben Carson is in second place with 17%, also similar to the 15% he had last time around. Marco Rubio at 13%, Jeb Bush at 10%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Carly Fiorina at 6%, and Mike Huckabee and John Kasich each at 4% round out the list of candidates with decent levels of support. Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum are all at 2%, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and George Pataki each get 1%, and in last place with less than 1% is Jim Gilmore.

Ipsos/Reuters 5 Day tracking poll
 Trump 32.8% ascending from 27.8 Sept


Thursday, October 1, 2015

Poll Update; Now 34.7%:Trump Extends Nationwide Lead 20 Points Leads in 6 States

New; Ipsos/Reuters 5 day tracking Poll Trump 09/28 27.8% After tax policy 10/2 32.4% Ahead of Carson by 21.5 points

New Gravis Poll Up up and away
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New Ipsos poll

1) 2016 National Republican Primary

Asked of 481 Republicans
Jeb Bush (R)10%
Ben Carson (R)12%
Chris Christie (R)5%
Ted Cruz (R)5%
Carly Fiorina (R)8%
Jim Gilmore (R)1%
Lindsey Graham (R)0%
Mike Huckabee (R)3%
Bobby Jindal (R)1%
John Kasich (R)1%
George Pataki (R)0%
Rand Paul (R)7%
Marco Rubio (R)7%
Rick Santorum (R)2%
Donald Trump (R)32%
Wouldn't vote6%
New Pew Research poll taken before Trump's tax plan has Trump at 25%-4 points higher than NBC poll so loved by media as "proof trump has peaked"

After a striking lift in various national and state polls after a leveling off just after the 2nd debate Donald trump has had an amazing three days of positive polling.

This seems to be a regular occurrence which goes.
1.High poll leads
2.Debate which all the immediate polls shows he won
3.Media attack Trump's performance and predict he is doomed
4.Media puffs up one of the other candidates (usually Fiorina and Rubio, they've given up on Bush)
5. Trump starts to ascend in the polls again.

Rinse and repeat.

The new YouGov/Economist poll has Trump up 10 points-up 9 from the media touted NBC poll

And in South Carolina, Texas and Florida Trump leads comfortably. He is just 2 points behind Bush and Rubio COMBINED in their own state. In the last three days Trumps polls show him winning Wisconsin/North Carolina/Florida/Georgia/South Carolina/Texas

And in a possibly  important aspect in relation to the Electoral College Trump's assertion that he could win "rust belt states" like Michigan and Ohio see this development;

Trump Leading by 27% in Union Stronghold as Teamsters Want Meeting and Unions Abandon Hillary

Reagan Dems and Independents are immensely important, and Hoekstra says it would be a benefit to a Republican candidate if the Teamsters were to endorse.
“Unions endorsed Ronald Reagan,” Hoekstra said. “It really helps to have a broad cross-section of voters as part of your coalition, and that includes the Teamsters and other unions. They are full of Independents and Reagan Democrats that we can’t write off if we want to win.”
Macomb County, Michigan, has a population of approx. 850,000 people and is a prominent swing region. Macomb is known for a strong independent streak and is the home of many Reagan Dems.
According to pollster Steve Mitchell, all the GOP candidates being polled against Hillary in that critical Macomb region are beating her soundly.
“In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by a good margins;
Trump by 27%, Mitchell said in a press release.