Friday, August 26, 2016

Video;Gov. Palin On Trump And Immigration.Agree With Her or Not She's Always Consistent

Whether one agrees with Governor Palin or not the one thing that even the haters (the ones with even a bit of their soul left) could agree with and that is Palin is constant and consistent.

Where politicians are flip-floppers and looking to choose the easy option, even after having put a stake in the ground on some contentious issues to garner support then shift to the supposed center, Palin never does.

This is why I, and many many other Palin supporters, still continue to uphold her and her values because she, and her values, never change. Certainly there are modifications around issues as things change but the basic premises, the core values never do.

Whether Palin ever seeks office again, whilst a desiderata that she does in my opinion, it is not the most important factor in my support. 

It may be, in the end, that Palin as a touchstone of true conservatism and Christian values, serves her causes better by being above and apart from the elective political process except to endorse those candidate she sees as being able to put her ideals into practice. 

From Politico; 

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on Thursday said she's not too worried about the charges that Donald Trump has gone soft on immigration, saying the Republican nominee “didn’t garner a lot of enthusiastic support by being soft on anything.”

“Donald Trump understands that enforcing the laws and building a wall are paramount to what the will of the people is,” she told guest host Eric Bolling in an interview on "The O’Reilly Factor" on Fox News. “Thank God he’s still preaching that, because if he were not, then there would be a huge erosion of support.”

“Candidate Trump didn’t garner a lot of enthusiastic support by being soft on anything,” she added.
Trump over the past week has generated a flood of headlines by appearing to back away from his proposal for a "deportation force," saying he is open to "softening" immigration laws and that he's willing to "work with" certain undocumented immigrants if they pay back taxes.

Palin on Thursday also suggested people do their “ABCs — ‘Anybody but Clinton’” — which would help them understand that anything Trump decides to do with immigration would be “better than what Hillary will do, which is incentivize more illegals to come on over.”

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Major Statement From Gov.Palin On Hillary And Racism

From Governor Palin;

Leftists throw down the race card in a despicable manner in order to distract from revelations of crony corruption on steroids within the Clinton Foundation and Hillary's State Department. 

Donald J. Trump was NEVER called a "racist" or a "bigot" until he chose to run against the anointed democrat leader, Hillary Clinton. For decades, Trump has enjoyed close relationships with Americans of all races, colors, creeds, genders, and demographic. The same media covering his relationships with his diverse friends, colleagues and competitors just got sucked in to the Left's politics of personal destruction by not holding Hillary accountable for her sinfully false accusation of racism in the Trump camp.

Out here in the real world full of hardworking Americans who believe that all men are created equal, recognize it's only in the sick world of politics that we are divided into groups of blacks, whites, native, aboriginal... this, that, and everything else that would hyphenate America.

It's beyond the pall that Hillary slaps the "racist" label on Trump, thus labeling his supporters the same, for this is the politician who called one of the most renown former KKK members & recruiter - the late democrat US Senator Robert Byrd - her friend, her mentor and a man of "eloquence and nobility"! That's the pot calling the kettle black, eh, Hillary?

To Clinton supporters singing, "I'm with her!", please explain how flying with Byrd and Hillary - and the likes of Jeremiah Wright and any other individual thriving on division - will cause America to soar in unity. The jabs Hillary took today seek to divide our nation, which, if gone unanswered, media, will befall us all.

Monday, August 22, 2016

Hillary's "Campaign" An Insult To Voters

Where is Hillary? Is there in actuality a Democratic candidate? One would be forgiven, surely, for thinking there isn't one given the so called campaign that Hillary Clinton is "running".

Is not holding large public meetings (presuming she could in fact gather a large enough audience to fill a substantial venue) an acceptable manner of running for the highest office in the land?

Is not presenting policies in a detailed version on the campaign trail instead of just  shouting slogans the proper manner of giving the voters a reasoned choice?

Is not holding a single press conference in 267 days, which even the Washington Post considers a scandal, acceptable.

Is not forthrightly answering questions as to the state of her health giving the public confidence that she could stand the strains of office.

Is just parroting and criticizing Donald Trump's statements instead of discussing her own vision for America not an insult to voters?

There has not been a presidential candidate in living memory who has conducted such a negative, small and obscure campaign. 

Even those candidates, presidents running for reelection and taking the 'demands of the office' manner still had more public meetings and made more policy statements than Clinton.

It appears that Clinton thinks she can just waltz to the election by raising money and hiding from the public whilst being aided and abetted by a compliant and complicit media. 

This is pure arrogance and can lead to the end result of the Brexit team whose arrogance led to their shock defeat and "Dewey defeats Truman."

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Where Are The "Army Of Lawyers" To Investigate "Heartbeat Away" Tim Kaine ?

"Sarah Palin is a heartbeat away from being president as running mate to a 72 year old cancer survivor." So said the Democrat's and the media in the first full flush of the shock of McCain taking a 12 point lead after her nomination as his VP running mate.

They even dredged up doctors to show a post-operative skin cancer scarred McCain whilst they intoned sonorously that his chances for survival were very much in question "McCain is 72 and has had cancer four times."

In contrast Hillary Clinton's manifest health issues, age,seeming odd reactions, coughing fits, inability to stand for periods at her events and now a stool, rescue assistants always at hand have elicited hardly any media comment whatsoever.

What has elicited absolutely zero media attention is  that her running mate Tim Kaine is "a heartbeat away from an obviously ill and weak soon to be 69 year old.

In the McCain "heartbeat away" situation the media, as mentioned, endlessly harped on McCain's age and health. 

Given their preoccupation with Palin (I doubt if McCain's age/health would have been mentioned at all Lieberman or Romney had been his VP)  they felt it was their "journalistic duty" to investigate every possible facet of Palin's life and career as, according to them, she could easily become president in case of McCain's untimely demise.

They even sent an army of 30 lawyers to Alaska to undertake "Operation Palin"

"It's no surprise, then, that Democrats have airdropped a mini-army of 30 lawyers, investigators and opposition researchers into Anchorage, the state capital Juneau and Mrs. Palin's hometown of Wasilla to dig into her record and background. My sources report the first wave arrived in Anchorage less than 24 hours after John McCain selected her on August 29."

And hand in hand with this every aspect of her personal life, her family life (especially her pregnant daughter) her sisters's divorce, the supposed "affair" with her husband's business partner and anything else they could dredge up no matter how bizarre and scurrilous, was examined in minute detail. 

Now, is it too much to expect that even one tenth of the attention paid to Palin under the circumstances could now be paid to VP candidate, "a heartbeat away from the presidency" Tim Kaine? For "journalistic duty"?

After all,the same aspects that so concerned the media in 2008 are in place with Hillary now. Kaine could become "the most powerful man in the world" and what exactly does the country know about the man, and his family, and his record and his possible indiscretions? Frankly they know next to nothing.

Since Kaine could, like Harry Truman, be thrust into the presidency within months of being elected vice-president surely the media, no matter how leftist and supportive of Clinton, owes it to the public to actually do their job? Or does "investigative journalism" and media sensationalism only apply to Republicans?

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Tale of Two Convention "Bounces" There Was Only A Half Point Difference

Summary; Trump's peak post convention bounce week one was   +4.0 points
                         Hillary's  post convention bounce week one was  +4.6 points

Poll result July 17th one day prior to both convention   Trump 42.9 %  Clinton   42.2%    Trump   +0.7 Points

Poll result August 11th two weeks post conventions
Trump 43.1%    Clinton  44.2%     Clinton +1.1 Points 


Difference after both conventions

1. Donald Trump's Convention "Bounce"

Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll the RNC results were as follows;

Republican National Convention July 18-21
Trump's poll on the last day    43.4%

Seven day post convention July 22nd to July 28th 

Trump's peak poll July 27th     47.4% +4.0 points (8.4%)                                                  
Trump's final week poll day                                     
                   July 28th                  46.7% +3.3 points  (5.8%)

Two weeks 8/4 post convention 
                                                     44.6% +1.2 points  (2.6%)


2. Hillary Clinton's Convention "Bounce"

Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll which is the only poll publishing daily results the DNC results were as follows;

Democratic National Convention July 25th to 28th
Clinton's last day of the convention poll number was 40.6%

Seven days post convention July 29th to August 4th.

Clinton's peak post convention poll was (August 4th) on the final poll day  45.2 %                                                
One week post convention bounce was 4.6 points  (10%) 

Two weeks post convention August 11th 
44.2%  +3.6 points  (+8.1%)                 

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

DEM’S APPROACHING CRISIS; If Hillary’s Health Gives Out Who Can Replace Her?

The obvious examples of Hillary Clinton’s health problems are too numerous to be denied. The videos of her coughing attacks, seeming blank patches of speech halt, the intervention on stage by her handler all have been widely circulated on the internet.

Her media handlers pointing to a doctor’s statement that is a year old suggesting she is in “good health” after the need for a major medical intervention give nobody any confidence in her current medical situation.

This is only at the early stage of the grueling general election campaign and should a major health incident or a substantial coughing fit during the debates take place the voter’s confidence in her ability to serve out a full four year term would, rightly, be strongly shaken.

If, as is quite possible, Clinton is unable to continue with the campaign because a debilitating incident or a major event such as a coughing fit so hits her polling position she could quite possibly, and quite rightly, have to discontinue her run.

This would of course be disastrous for the Democratic party,  not least because who would replace her is a matter of no immediate answer given the Dem’s lack of a “deep bench.”

Sanders would of course normally be given the role as the runner up in the primary campaign. However the former Independent, then Democrat stated he would return to the senate as an independent once again. 

That the party could be headed by someone who has clearly stated he doesn’t wish to be a member would surely preclude him from being the replacement nominee.

How such a scenario would go down with Sanders supporters who would have seen him rejected twice would be an unpleasant spectacle and would see whomever was chosen in his stead being deserted by those who, in loyalty to Sanders, supported Hillary no doubt against their will.

Who then? Joe Biden, whose age and personal family concerns precluded his seeking the office? He might out of party loyalty but whether his heart would be in the campaign is a matter of doubt.

Kaine? Who? Kaine’s claim to the nomination is tenuous at best with only  his situation as having been picked as a  “safe”  and innocuous VP choice from a marginal state without having participated in any way in the run up to the nomination. In fact if participation has any bearing on the matter Martin O’Malley has as good a claim to the nomination as anyone.

Elizabeth Warren was briefly trotted out as an attack dog and the quickly shunted into the background. Whether the DNC would wish to have a female Trump  opposing  him is a matter of some doubt, as would if her “favorables” would be any better than Hillary’s terrible ones are currently.

Beyond these luminaries it is difficult to imagine who might take Hillary’s place if need be-except for, yes, Michelle Obama. 

She is the one person who could legitimately run as “Obama’s third term” and do well keeping together the coalition of overwhelming Black support which might have dissipated with Hillary ( or any other successor) and keep the rust belt states in play against the strong challenge from Trump. 

But whether she would wish to run, something she has given no indication of entering her mind is another question, but DNC pleading “for the sake of America” might override any personal considerations.

As it is the Democrats have the sword of Damocles clearly dangling and if it falls they may not survive its descent no matter who the fallen swords point points to. 

Their collective prayers must surely be for Hilary’s health to hold out for the next 90 odd days-or else catastrophe awaits.

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Poll Of Tracking Polls; First "Honest" Snapshot Of The Clinton/Trump Race

UPDATE AUGUST 27; Better day in the tracking polls for Trump

PPD Clinton Plus 0.7 USC Clinton Plus 0.6

Both were Clinton +1.3  on 8/26


Week 2; Clinton declined from an aggregate lead of 4.1 points on August 14 to being behind by 0.6 points  August 21st

Clinton peaked on 8/16 at +6.5% (UPI/C Poll) and has dropped sharply since as also indicated in the chart further below.

​Given the nature of the "lag" between the one off polls (and especially the state polling aggregates)​ it could be well expected that over the next weeks the one off polls will reflect where the tracking polls are.

This reflects Nate Silver's complete misreading of Donald Trump's campaign right from the first days of the primary campaign Silver weighs in that Clinton's lead has stabilized "It's clear and steady" just as the tide has turned now.

Pat Caddell; "Tracking polls tend to be much closer than one offs."

Taking respected pollster Pat Caddell's advice regarding tracking polls it seems highly possible that the aggregate of major trackers would give the least biased/distorted snapshot of where the head to head polling is at any given time.

The various "one off" nationwide polls are showing ridiculous extremes which reflects the underlying bias/distortion caused by how they use demographics.
For example

Voters in 2012 Dem 38% GOP 32% Indie 29% New Dem 35% GOP 26% Indie 39% 18-24 year olds in 2012 19% Monmouth 25%

How polls are done "YouGov Clinton leads by 3 " Dem respondents 48% of those polled 33% were Republicans 14%

Further  proof that these polls are leftist driven for the MSM is that Quinippiac reports Trump and Clinton tied at 43% each in Florida while McClatchy/Marist has her ahead by 15 points nationwide-those results are irreconcilable of course. The aggregate of six non-tracking polls is 
Clinton +10 which gives a bias of +150% over "honest" Tracking polls.

NB; "PPD "The result of the People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll released on Saturday July 30 marks the first time our internal polling data, which helped propel the PPD Election Projection Model to #1 in 2014, has been released for public consumption."

Senator Collins Tears The GOP Into Three If Trump Loses And So Be It

Maine's Senator Susan Collins will have torn the Republican Party into three, unless Donald Trump wins the election.

If Trump loses, and of course Collins actions would be a considerable factor in such a loss, it is impossible for the party to stay permanently unfractured after November. 

The fifty Republican security analysts who signed an open letter declaring Trump unfit for the presidency is a matter than Trump, rightly shrugged off as coming from a 'failed Washington elite." Their contribution, if any, to a Trump defeat would be be negligible and Trump's dismissal would resonate with anyone who took any notice of the signatories.

The scattering of elected Republican officials, three Congressmen in particular, who have advised they won't vote for Trump are also, in the great scheme of things, unlikely to have any bearing on his Electoral College vote, but it might have an affect on their subsequent careers at primary time.

Senator Collins betrayal of the GOP, and betrayal it is, marks a bridge too far. Even Nixon campaigned for Goldwater whose campaign makes Trump look Reaganesque, that Collins could not also be loyal, if not to Trump then to the millions who chose him in the primaries, marks an irreparable breach. 

Further Maine, where recent polling had Trump leading in one Electoral College vote district and whose four votes could be crucial makes Collins betrayal even worse than it appears.

Collins is a respected, long serving senator in a time of genuine and widespread disaffection for politicians, and given Trump's apparent problem with women voters her attack compounds the situation.

If via the desertion of Collins, the breaching of the "contract' to support the nominee by Jeb Bush and others, Trump loses then there is no possible way for the party as currently constructed to stay united. 

There is no possible way that Trump supporters can work with the "#NeverTrump" irreconcilables who are deluding themselves if they think the party will unite after November. Why on earth should any Trump supporter support any candidate that these betrayers support in future 

There will be three distinct groupings. The D.C. establishment as represented by the Bush/Romney/Graham element, the grass roots Trump supporters and the Cruz conservatives.

There is no possible way for these three utterly opposed groupings to stay together, the days of
cynical "unity" would be over and for any member of these three groups to support the other would be an abhorrent show of utter cynicism.

If Trump loses the populist "Trumpist" element would respond to the leadership vacuum (presuming Trump steps down) and a Sarah Palin type, perhaps Rubio (if not Palin herself) who combines the qualities of religious values, populist roots and mutual respect with a center-right policy. This group, which has to be a new party for obvious reasons of utter incompatibility with the backstabbers in D.C. would have the widest popular voting support.

It is conceivable that if personal animosities could be overcome and conservative leaders do not attack Trump overtly then some sort of coalition with the populists could be created, but if not there is the makings of a regional party (it would of course have no effect in the east where Cruz was battered in the primaries).

As for the establishment they  would be welcome the the name of "Republicans as they disappear down the rabbit hole where the Federalists and Whigs preceded them. Their candle will be a brief, unloved and unlovely flicker as its light, such as it is, splutters out. It is unimaginable that the vast populist movement that came to support Trump in their millions could be led by Lindsay Graham, Jeb Bush and cohort.

The transition to a new populist party will be quick and not painful, rather like a butterfly emerging from a dusty cocoon casting off the detritus of change. It may come to pass that populists will thank the likes of Collins and Graham for making this emergence possible. It would be better of course for their likes to be swept away by a Trump landslide but if that does not eventuate four years of renewal and their being discarded will be effective.